OPEC+ members to delay oil production increases

The OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance has postponed plans to unwind several formal and voluntary crude production cuts into 2026 amid a lukewarm outlook for global demand, according to delegate sources and internal documents.

The sources could only speak anonymously because of the sensitivity of talks.

Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day (bpd) until Dec. 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.

Eight OPEC+ members will now extend their 2.2 million-barrel-per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter, and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026. Several OPEC+ members will also be postponing the unwinding of a second 1.7-million-barrels-per-day cut until the end of next year. This latter production decline was previously only set to last through 2025.

Despite these sets of production trims and ongoing conflict threatening the hydrocarbon-rich Middle Eastern region, global oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of this year, under pressure from a tepid demand outlook. The Ice Brent contract with February expiry and front-month January Nymex WTI futures were both trading flat at 1:31 p.m. London time, compared with their Wednesday close prices.

Adding to geopolitical uncertainty is the imminent White House return of President-elect Donald Trump — who has led his electoral campaign on pledges to further unleash the output of the world’s largest oil producer.

“While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily find itself back in a similar position in three months’ time,” analysts at Capital Economics said in a note.

“In our view, the fundamentals for oil prices remain weak, and the risks to prices are skewed to the downside.”