Poland's opposition leader Donald Tusk declares election victory

Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.

An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition together as a coalition has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.

In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.

“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.

Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.

Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.

Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.

Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.

As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.

Who is Donald Tusk?

The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.

In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.

He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.

In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.

He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.

Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.

He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.

His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”

Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.

Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy

The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.

After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.

That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.

At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.

He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.

Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.

Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.

For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.

Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.

Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.

There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.

And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.

PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.

Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.

And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.

If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.