Jan 19, 2023

We’re about halfway through winter and the top free agents have signed, meaning it’s time to look ahead toward the start of the 2023 season.

Where does every team stand heading into spring training? Despite not being at the center of this year’s free agency, are the reigning World Series champions atop our rankings? Did the Mets’ and Padres’ offseason acquisitions help push them to the No. 1 spot? And where do Aaron Judge and the Yankees sit?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of last year’s performances and what we’ve seen this offseason. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and Buster Olney to weigh in with the biggest question for all 30 teams.

Ranking all 30 teams following free agency frenzy

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The Rays have one of the smallest margins for error in MLB, given their low payroll, so they will need their highest-paid players to perform. This is why they will need a big rebound from Wander Franco, in whom they made the most significant investment in franchise history. Franco played in just 83 games last year because of injuries, posting an OBP of .328 and scoring just 46 runs. This winter, Franco has been working on his flexibility, on getting leaner.

“He looks great,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said recently. “If we can keep him healthy, I’m confident that we will see the player we all know he can be. He seems very motivated and excited to get going.” — Olney

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Is there enough positive regression on the roster to merit optimism that Chicago can rebound from a disappointing 2022? We only ask because the White Sox’s offseason mostly looks like treadmill exercise. They added some players and lost others and from a forecast standpoint, it kind of all washes out and leaves the White Sox where they started, with what looks like a .500-ish baseline. Most of the same issues with last year’s roster remain even if some of the names have changed, not the least of which is the manager, now Pedro Grifol.

The biggest hope for a rebound is for those who underachieved in 2021 to snap back to their previous trajectory, perhaps with the new coaching staff guiding the way. The list of possible bounce-backs is long: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, among others. It can happen, but when a team takes a step back during a stretch of seasons in which it is supposed to be contending, a talent infusion isn’t the worst idea. — Doolittle

Mets or Yankees? Padres or Dodgers? »

The Cubs are sort of, kind of, half-heartedly making a push for bigger things in 2023. They signed Swanson for $177 million, hoping he can come close to replicating his career season he had with the Braves. Another 5.7-WAR season is optimistic, but Swanson and Nico Hoerner will at least give the Cubs elite middle infield defense and solid offense.

The additions of Bellinger, Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini are less inspiring. Bellinger provides good defense, but he hasn’t hit the past two seasons, including .210/.265/.389 in 2022 with a strikeout rate 11% higher than his 2019 MVP season. Jameson Taillon is the big add to the pitching staff and with Justin Steele‘s breakout and Hayden Wesneski‘s late-season performance, there is a scenario where the rotation pitches the Cubs into the postseason in a weak division. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 15

The prevailing question surrounding the Giants seems obvious: Where, exactly, are they headed? They began this offseason in pursuit of a star, the type of player they can build their franchise around. But they missed out on Judge, couldn’t agree with Correa and instead made moves along the margins once again, adding a couple of outfielders (Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto) and a trio of pitchers (Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and lefty reliever Taylor Rogers). The Giants don’t seem anywhere near the Padres or the Dodgers at the moment, but they also have a mid-tier farm system. Just two years removed from a shocking 107-win season, they suddenly look like a team without clear direction. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 23

Don Mattingly is gone after seven seasons and one playoff appearance in the shortened 2020 season, with Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker hired as the new manager. Indeed, the Marlins haven’t finished over .500 in a full season since 2009 or made the playoffs since 2003. But, hey, their 93 losses were the fewest in a full season since 2017. So … progress? Adding veterans Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto hardly moves the needle, but there is hope for a dominant rotation with full seasons from Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera and a bounce-back from Trevor Rogers alongside Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Fellow starter Pablo Lopez appears to be on the trade block for an outfield bat. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 28

Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana would be a great pair for the middle of the lineup — in 2013. A decade later, former NL MVP McCutchen returns to Pittsburgh at age 36 while 37-year-old Santana gives the club a 1B/DH option along with Ji-Man Choi. Oh, they also signed Rich Hill, who turns 43 in March. Sentiment notwithstanding, does any of this excite you? I guess it’s something. Perhaps some “how to do things the right way” insight from the wise veterans will rub off on some of the younger players, and it’s worth noting that McCutchen, Santana and Choi are all disciplined hitters. Pay attention, Oneil Cruz. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 25

What exactly is the plan for the rotation? The Royals signed a pair of veterans in free agency this year. One, righty Jordan Lyles, has a composite ERA+ of 89 over the past five seasons. The other, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, is at 94. For those not familiar, ERA+ is an indexed, park-adjusted version of ERA housed at baseball-reference.com in which 100 represents league average. League average, in theory, translates to 81-81 if all of your players are at that level. If they are below that level, then you aren’t really winning games, or at least not enough to contend or earn the interest of your fan base.

Both of the new pitchers are over 30 and their performances are well-established. They can eat innings but what really would be the point if the innings consist of a large quantity of below-average production? — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 24

The Rockies play half their games in the sport’s most favorable hitting environment and yet their team OPS has been exactly league average — .721 — since the start of the 2020 season. Kris Bryant, signed to a seven-year, $182 million contract last March that surprised a lot of people, was brought in to help fix that. He contributed an .851 OPS in his first season, but a troublesome back and a bout with plantar fasciitis limited him to 42 games. He’s 31 now, and the question is whether Bryant can stay healthy enough to play like a perennial All-Star in Colorado. This franchise can’t really move forward if Bryant doesn’t perform to the level of his contract. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 27

The Tigers finally decided to change the dimensions of Comerica Park, pulling in the fence in center field and lowering the height of the barrier in places. In doing so, they finally succumbed to years and years of whining from various power hitters who have come through Detroit over the years. This move has been a long time coming, so it’s not a knee-jerk reaction to the 2023 season — the considerations to make the changes are about the long run. But since we’re looking at next season, you wonder if the short-term effects could be ugly or, at the very least, work against the home team. The combination of factors behind this concern: Detroit’s starting staff is light on strikeouts and potentially heavy on long flies and is paired with a lineup that isn’t likely to rank high in homers, no matter where they play. — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 29

Since the start of last season, the A’s have unloaded Frankie Montas, Elvis Andrus and Murphy, completing the mass roster — and now, it’s unclear when the franchise will be competitively relevant again. Their big move this offseason was the signing of utility men Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson to two-year contracts. The highest-paid player on the Oakland roster is reliever Trevor May, who will make $7 million in 2023 — or about what Verlander and Scherzer will each make in April. The AL West figures to be one of baseball’s most competitive divisions, with the Rangers and Angels earnestly working to upgrade their rosters enough to challenge the Astros and Mariners. All of those teams will feast on the Athletics in 2023. — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 30

Were the Nationals terrible in 2022? Yes. Will they be bad in 2023? Almost certainly. The Nationals added some depth pieces in Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario and Corey Dickerson, guys who have produced in the past but not in 2022. The season, however, is about the development of the young players they hope turn into a core to build around: CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 26

How different will the Reds look from Opening Day to the end of the season? This very much looks like another transitional season for the Reds, who carry one of the worst 2023 forecasts as we head toward the backstretch of the hot stove part of the calendar. But that’s not to say that the looming season won’t provide things to look forward to for the Cincinnati faithful.

There is a young 1-2-3 rotation of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. There is a plethora of exciting middle infielders, from Jose Barrero to Elly De La Cruz and others. The Reds aren’t likely to be good this season but they might well have some key components of the next Cincinnati team that will be good. How many of those players will be in place by the end of the coming season? — Doolittle