Dec 9, 2025, 07:01 AM ET

After 14 weeks, five rankings and a chaotic selection day, the 2025 College Football Playoff is finally here. The second edition of a 12-team field brings two Group of 5 teams, a new No. 1 for the postseason and five teams from the SEC alone.

But how do bettors make sense of all the chaos?

To break it down, Pamela Maldonado gives us the outlook for the field (including a strength and a fault for each team), David Purdum has some intel on what sportsbooks are seeing post-selection day and Joe Fortenbaugh and Maldonado team up give us their best bets for the playoff.

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Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes are the definition of high-end volatility driven by elite pass rush and terrible tackling. They can overwhelm offensive lines with pressure, but missed tackles (114th) create explosives from the other side. Their offense is steady enough to capitalize, but their defensive inconsistency makes them dangerous as an underdog but unreliable as an underdog upset.

Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies have trench competence without trench dominance. They have a strong pass rush and solid run defense, which allows them to muddy games, but having a bottom-tier passing grade limits their ability to capitalize on stops. They’re the classic spoiler team: tough enough to drag contenders into uncomfortable games, but not dynamic enough to win a playoff slugfest.

Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are precision without chaos. Elite in almost everything: passing efficiency, run blocking, run defense, tackling, but lack in creating pressure, which caps their ability to dictate games on defense against stronger offensive opponents. They win when the game stays clean and scripted, but also struggle when opponents force creativity and balance.

Odds and ends

  • The opening lines for the first-round games varied at sportsbooks, especially on the Alabama-Oklahoma game. DraftKings Sportsbook opened the Sooners as 1.5-point favorites, while other bookmakers installed the Crimson Tide as small favorites. The consensus line on Monday was Alabama -1.5, but some sportsbooks had the game listed at pick ’em, and others had the Sooners as small favorites.

  • Oddsmakers estimated that the loss of coach Lane Kiffin would impact point spreads on Ole Miss games by as much as four points, but it appears to be even more. The Rebels were 23.5-point favorites over Tulane in a convincing 45-10 win over the Green Wave on Sept. 20. Ole Miss opened as a 16.5-point favorite over Tulane in their first-round matchup.

  • Oregon was installed as a 21-point favorite over James Madison, the largest spread of the four first-round games. If the line holds at 20 or more, it would be the largest point spread on a CFP game ever. The Ducks have won 43 straight games outright when favored by at least 20 points. They are 14-7 against the spread in such games under coach Dan Lanning.

  • Joey Feazel, who oversees football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Sunday that they saw minimal early action on the first-round point spreads. “Bettors tend to wait for more information and market movement before committing,” Feazel said. “As the lines have started to settle, we’ve seen some notable shifts: Ole Miss has dipped below the key number of 17, now sitting at -16.5, while Texas A&M has ticked up from -3 to -4.”

  • Texas A&M is 5-7 against the spread this season, the worst ATS mark of any of the 12 teams in the CFP. The Aggies are just 2-5 ATS at home. — Purdum

Best bets

Oklahoma Sooners (+1.5) over Alabama Crimson Tide

This game kicks off in Norman, Oklahoma, at 7 p.m. local time on Dec. 19 with a current total of 40.5. So, given the information we have in front of us at the moment — cold temperatures likely, low-scoring likely — which of the following options would you be more inclined to back with your hard-earned money:

I’ll side with Oklahoma to win the rematch, especially with quarterback John Mateer getting 20 days of rest in preparation for this game. — Fortenbaugh

Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5) over Miami Hurricanes

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff saw first-round home teams go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread while winning by an average of 19.2 points per game. On top of that, those four winners covered the closing point spread by an astounding 10.2 points per game. Needless to say, home-field advantage in this sport for this playoff format is extremely valuable.

This is a good buy-low spot for A&M following its end-of-season loss to Texas that is still fresh in everybody’s mind. Perhaps more importantly, it can’t be overstated how much I don’t trust Miami head coach Mario Cristobal in high-leverage, late-game scenarios. — Fortenbaugh

Indiana to win National Championship (+250)

HODL. I’m sticking with my midseason call. After Week 7, I grabbed Indiana (+900) to win the national title.

Nothing since has changed that conviction. Indiana looks like a championship team: balanced, efficient, physical, turnover-creating and built to win in any style.

The national title odds: Ohio State +240, Indiana +250, Georgia +600, Texas Tech +800. These odds say there’s no super team, no true favorite.

The odds to make the semifinal: Indiana at (-320) is appropriate because it’s a “who can actually beat them” type of team. Ohio State (-260) is pure tax for a team that stalls against elite fronts and relies on rhythm and explosives.

My read: Indiana is still the most complete matchup team. Ohio State is the most fragile favorite. Georgia is overpriced. Texas Tech is dangerous, but limited by style. — Maldonado

Oregon to win National Championship (+750)

The best prediction is undoubtedly Indiana to win. But the best value? Oregon.

Oregon has the one offensive profile that can break TTU’s defensive script and inject enough variance to threaten Indiana in a single-game sample.

The Ducks aren’t the best team in the field, but they are the team whose odds don’t match their upset equity. That’s what +750 buys: mispriced probability, not a forecast.

Prediction is Indiana, but the value is Oregon. — Maldonado