The College Football Playoff selection committee members will tell you they don’t rank conferences — they rank teams — but the Big Ten and SEC are leading the way in nonconference wins that will impact the committee’s rankings through Selection Day.

According to ESPN Research, the SEC enters Week 3 with a 27-3 nonconference record (8-2 against Power 4 opponents), while the Big Ten is 31-5 (5-3 against Power 4 opponents). The Big 12 is 24-8 but 5-6 against the Power 4, and the ACC is 22-10 but 3-9 against Power 4 teams.

Those results impact the following conference-by-conference playoff breakdown — listed in order of who is projected to have the most teams in the 12-team field.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each Power 4 league, and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in

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The enigma: Georgia Tech. With Haynes King in the lineup, Georgia Tech is a tough team capable of building upon last year’s seven-win season under coach Brent Key, but is this team capable of being more than a CFP spoiler? Remember, the Jackets beat Miami last year and pushed Georgia to eight overtimes — in Athens. This year, they avoid Miami, Florida State and SMU. Even without King, who was sidelined on Saturday with a lower-body injury, the Jackets beat overmatched Gardner-Webb 59-12 and backup quarterback Aaron Philo got some meaningful reps. The committee will learn more about both Clemson and Georgia Tech on Saturday when the Jackets host the Tigers — a game ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 55.9% chance to win. If that happens, Georgia Tech should be favored in every remaining game — except the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And — gasp — if Georgia Tech is sitting there on Selection Day having played in the ACC title game and with a lone regular-season loss to Georgia, this “enigma” is suddenly a playoff contender. The Jackets would be a lock with the ACC title, and in high consideration as a two-loss runner-up.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami (33.4%), Florida State (22.8%)

Work to do: Georgia Tech (17.1%), Clemson (11.4%), SMU (8.2%)

Would be out: Louisville (5.1%), Virginia (3.2%), Pitt (2.8%), Boston College (1.8%), NC State (1.7%), Cal (0.7%), Duke (0.6%), Virginia Tech (0.5%), Syracuse (0.2%), North Carolina (0%), Stanford (0%), Wake Forest (0%)

Big 12

Bubble watch spotlight: Iowa State. The Big 12 winner will earn a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, but the ultimate champ in this wide-open league is anyone’s guess. Right now, ESPN Analytics gives Utah the best chance to win the Big 12 (21.9%), followed by TCU (19.9%), BYU (17.7%) and then Iowa State (9.5%). The Cyclones, though, would have a slight edge with the committee because of two Power 4 wins against Kansas State and rival Iowa. Still, the league isn’t represented in our latest projection of the committee’s top 12. That’s because other teams have better résumés or have looked better (or a combination of both), and because Iowa State’s season-opening win against K-State will be devalued a bit after the Wildcats lost to Army (which lost to Tarleton State!). The committee also looks at opponents’ opponents. ESPN’s FPI projects Iowa State will lose to both BYU and TCU, but this is the kind of conference race that should go into late November — like it did last year. A two-loss Big 12 champ is in, but anything less than a title would open the door for debate.

The enigma: Texas Tech. The boosters have poured money by the bucketful into a highly rated class of 22 transfers. Billionaire Cody Campbell said publicly the school’s collective has raised $63.3 million since it was formed in 2022. And coach Joey McGuire was quoted this summer in the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal saying it’s “the best roster I’ve ever been a part of.” Now it’s time to see if they got their money’s worth. So far, the Red Raiders have scored 129 points in two games — albeit against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State. ESPN’s FPI says Texas Tech will lose two regular-season games — Sept. 20 at Utah and Nov. 8 against BYU. And the Oct. 18 trip to Arizona State is a 50-50 game. If Texas Tech finishes the regular season as a two-loss team — and doesn’t win the Big 12 — it probably won’t have a résumé impressive enough for an at-large bid. If the Red Raiders’ lone loss is a close one in the Big 12 title game, though, it would give the league a strong chance at two CFP teams.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Iowa State (12.9%)

Work to do: Utah (27.2%), TCU (24.8%), BYU (22.8%), Texas Tech (11.1%), Baylor (5.7%)

Would be out: Kansas (6.3%), Arizona (3.4%), Arizona State (3.1%), UCF (1.7%), Houston (1.1%), Cincinnati (0.9%), Kansas State (0.7%), Colorado (0.4%), West Virginia (0.1%), Oklahoma State (0%)

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame (24%). This is a team the committee would like better than the computers right now, as the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Notre Dame the 18th-best chance of getting into the playoff — behind the likes of Auburn, Nebraska and TCU. The close loss at Miami didn’t doom the Irish. A home loss on Saturday to Texas A&M, though, and the Irish are in trouble. ESPN’s FPI gives Notre Dame a 71.2% chance to win at home — and the second-best chance in the country to win out (behind Ohio State). If that happens, and Notre Dame finishes as a one-loss team (possibly to the ACC champs), the committee would consider Notre Dame for one of the top four seeds and a first-round bye. Those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions, so there’s no ceiling anymore for the independent Irish. Without a conference championship game, though, Notre Dame’s résumé has to stand on its own on Selection Day. That’s why a second loss could be so damaging — there’s no opportunity to lock up a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, and there’s not another chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent. So, if the Irish start 0-2, even if they run the table, they will have to bank on wins against the likes of Arkansas, Boise State, USC, Navy and Syracuse to earn an at-large bid. It seems … like a stretch.

Group of 5

Bubble watch spotlight: South Florida. The Bulls have already defeated the computers, which projected an 0-2 start. Now, with statement wins against Boise State and Florida — two teams that were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time — South Florida is leading the race for a Group of 5 playoff spot. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 72.3% chance to beat South Florida at home on Saturday, but even if the Bulls lose, they will still impress the selection committee with their 2-0 start. If South Florida wins the American Conference, it should earn a spot in the playoff because it’s going to be hard for another Group of 5 champion to finish with a better résumé. Things could get interesting if South Florida runs the table but loses in its conference title game. The committee would consider the Bulls for an at-large spot along with the top Group of 5 champion. With regular-season wins against Boise State, Florida and Miami — especially if the Canes win the ACC — no other Group of 5 team would beat that résumé. Only two weeks into the season, South Florida is already ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric, trailing only Ohio State and Florida State. The selection committee is using a similar metric this season to help evaluate how teams performed against their schedules.

The enigma: Tulane. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Tulane has the second-best chance in the American to reach the playoff (19.8%) behind South Florida. The Green Wave earned a Power 4 win in their opener, albeit at home against an unranked Northwestern team. Tulane has another chance to start to separate itself from the other Group of 5 contenders on Saturday against Duke, but the biggest opportunity will be on Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. This would be even more impressive than South Florida’s win at The Swamp because the Rebels look like a tougher opponent. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss an 87.3% chance to win.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida (34%)

Work to do: Tulane (19.8%), Memphis (16.6%), UNLV (11.1%), Navy (2.8%)