2025 MLB predictions: From playoffs and World Series to MVPs and Cy Youngs
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MLB’s regular season gets underway tomorrow with Opening Day baseball, so you know what that means — it’s time for season predictions!
There are lots of questions going into the 2025 season: Will the Dodgers repeat as World Series champions? What surprises will the expanded playoffs bring this year? How will Juan Soto look for the Mets — and how will the Yankees fare without him? And when will we see Shohei Ohtani reprise his two-way role on the mound?
No one can definitively know what’s in store for this season, but that doesn’t stop us from making our best guesses. We put 28 of ESPN’s MLB writers, analysts and editors on the spot to predict what will happen in baseball this year, from the wild-card contenders all the way up to the World Series champion, plus the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in both leagues.
For each category, we’ve asked a number of our voters to explain their picks. Did they hit the nail on the head or were they way off their mark? Only time can tell — and we’ll be circling back to these predictions come October to see how well — or poorly — we did.
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AL picks | NL picks | WS picks | AL awards | NL awards
AL East
Our pick: Boston Red Sox (13 votes)
Who else got votes? Baltimore Orioles (10), New York Yankees (3), Toronto Blue Jays (1), Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Boston is our voters’ favorite in the AL East. How can the Orioles beat out the Red Sox for the title? The Orioles will win the division because they will cobble together enough pitching to outlast the Red Sox and Yankees. They will win because their young players — most prominently Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser — will carry the offense through the regular season. Jackson Holliday, free of last year’s ridiculous expectations, will be more relaxed and productive. And here’s a wild card: Tomoyuki Sugano, signed out of Japan, will be a revelation in the starting rotation and present a reasonable facsimile of the departed Corbin Burnes. But temper the excitement: Boston is my pick to end up in the World Series. — Tim Keown
You were the only person to pick Toronto to win the division. Why are the Jays your choice? The Yankees and Orioles are already going to be several wins worse than last season because of all of those injuries they’ve already suffered this spring. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing for a new contract, Bo Bichette can’t possibly play as poorly as he did last season and Anthony Santander gives this lineup a nice power upgrade. If even only one of Max Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman stays healthy into September, we’re looking at a potential division winner here. Throw in a little extra support from an extra-motivated Canadian fan base? Head and heart unite behind the Blue Jays in 2025. — AJ Mass
AL Central
NL East
Our pick: Atlanta Braves (18 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (9), New York Mets (1)
Atlanta is once again the preseason division favorite. How can the Phillies beat out a fully healthy Braves squad? It’s mostly about starting pitching. I’m a big believer in what Cristopher Sanchez has done this spring — just look at his 29.2% K rate. If he has truly elevated his skillset to at least Aaron Nola‘s tier, if not a half-step behind Zack Wheeler‘s, and Jesus Luzardo can stay healthy as well as pitch the way he did in 2023, then the Phillies’ rotation isn’t simply as good as the Braves’ … it’s a clear step better. Yes, yes, the Braves have all of those bad-luck injury rebound candidates to potentially elevate their win total, but the Phillies did have six wins on them in the 2024 standings and have every bit as tantalizing a 2025 ceiling. — Cockcroft
Despite landing Juan Soto this offseason, you were the only person to pick the Mets to win the NL East. Explain your reasoning. The Braves are a better team on paper, especially given the Mets’ recent run of injuries, but I think New York’s willingness to spend and its depth — particularly of prospects in the upper minors — are being underrated as solutions to many of those problems. Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio, Ryan Clifford, Drew Gilbert and Jett Williams are all position player candidates. Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Blade Tidwell are young pitchers lingering in the upper minors. Only two or three players need to play better than expected in addition to the widely expected breakout from Clay Holmes to bridge that gap. — Kiley McDaniel
NL Central
Our pick: Chicago Cubs (15 votes)
Who else got votes? Milwaukee Brewers (8), Cincinnati Reds (5)
The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central, despite not having made the playoffs in a full season since 2018. What makes this year different? In going 83-79 the past two seasons, the Cubs lacked a middle-of-the-order hitter to anchor the lineup. Now they have Kyle Tucker, one of the best all-around players in the majors. Tucker, who was having his best season in 2024 before fracturing his shin, gives the Cubs their best offensive player since Kris Bryant during his MVP season in 2016. Rookie Matt Shaw also projects as a significant upgrade at third base (Cubs third basemen hit .210 last season) and the pitching staff is deeper. Throw in some Pythagorean improvement — the Cubs were seven wins worse than expected in 2023 and five worse in 2024 — and the arrows point to a division title. — David Schoenfield
Why is Milwaukee still your pick to win the division even with all the support for Chicago? Because the difference between the two talentwise is pretty negligible and I like teams that have won recently. It’s true the Brewers did not spend any money this winter and were raided in free agency. It’s also true that Jackson Chourio is on the verge of becoming one of the best players in baseball and the Brewers’ farm system consistently produces quality big leaguers — enough to send them to the postseason five times in the past six full seasons. The Cubs are better on paper, sure, but they haven’t played as much postseason baseball recently. That said, would it surprise me if the Cubs won the division? Not at all, because it’s the NL Central, and just about anything can happen. — Jeff Passan
NL West
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (28 votes)
Every single voter chose the Dodgers to win the division. Is their title inevitable? Never use the word inevitable when it comes to baseball but GM Andrew Friedman has done the best possible job of fortifying his team for another seven-month grind. Because of this, the Dodgers’ chances of not just another division title but a repeat World Series title are as good as any championship team since the early 2000s. The moment I picked them to repeat was the day they signed reliever Kirby Yates. It came just days after they grabbed Tanner Scott to close games. Signing the top arm in the market and then arguably the next best one is all anyone should know about L.A. This team has depth and redundancy all over the field. It’ll be enough to win the division, and the Fall Classic, again. — Rogers
NL wild cards
Our picks: Arizona Diamondbacks (20 votes), New York Mets (19), Philadelphia Phillies (18)
Who else got votes? San Diego Padres (11), Atlanta Braves (10), Milwaukee Brewers (3), Chicago Cubs (1), Pittsburgh Pirates (1), Cincinnati Reds (1)
You picked all three of the wild-card teams that received the most votes. Why will this be the NL wild-card field? The NL looks extremely top heavy this season, with a clear-cut top five. The Dodgers are heavy favorites to win it all, of course, and while the Braves face a tough three-way battle in the NL East, they are still running well over 50-50 in my projections to win that division. Meanwhile, the NL Central very much looks like a one-playoff-berth division. So that leaves the Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks and Padres to duke it out for the three wild-card slots, with the last spot coming down to the latter pair. Right now, I just think the Diamondbacks are deeper and better balanced than the Padres. I see all of this with extreme clarity which, in my experience, means all of this will be completely scrambled by Memorial Day. — Bradford Doolittle
It seems as if the Padres’ only route to the postseason is through the wild card — and our voters had them just missing the cut. How can San Diego replace one of the favored teams? The well-run Padres still boast plenty of talent to win 90 games again, led by multiple aces topping the rotation (Michael King and Dylan Cease), a strong, deep bullpen (watch Jeremiah Estrada) and an underrated lineup that was among the top 10 in runs scored last season. The Padres did lose some key players — but most teams do. Still, center fielder Jackson Merrill can keep improving, as can new veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta. Don’t worry about left field, because prospect Tirso Ornelas will be a star by midseason. These Padres are good enough to make their fourth playoff appearance in six seasons. — Eric Karabell
Cincinnati received five division title votes but just your one wild-card vote in a super packed NL field. How do you think the Reds can disrupt the wild-card race? Truth be told, I’m probably rooting for this story just as much as I think it will happen. Terry Francona’s return to the dugout is something to be celebrated and understood as simply a major upgrade at manager. Add to that the fact that Elly De La Cruz has had a full offseason to understand his potential, alongside the hopeful efforts of fireballer Hunter Greene on the mound and the Reds are, at the very least, going to be extremely fun to watch, never mind their actual success. — Clinton Yates
NL champion
Our pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (21 votes)
Who else got votes? Philadelphia Phillies (3), Atlanta Braves (3), Arizona Diamondbacks (1)
Make a case for how the Phillies can beat out the Dodgers. With right-handers Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and left-handers Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo, the Phillies can win a playoff series against any team, including the mighty Dodgers, who, before 2024, hadn’t had much playoff success. The key is for the Phillies to score runs in October, but their lack of production is why they’ve lost in recent seasons. Who knows which Dodgers will even be on the mound then? Los Angeles has excellent pitching, but it is far from reliable. Every rotation member boasts recent injury woes. This might be a regular-season dynasty — the Dodgers won only one playoff game during 2022-23. Any team can beat them in October. — Karabell
Make a case for how the Braves can beat out the Dodgers. The Braves aren’t as talented as the Dodgers, but they’re next on the list. In a vacuum, their 89-win season followed by a wild-card-round exit in 2024 was disappointing. But reaching that point was one of the most impressive results of the year in baseball given Atlanta’s dreadful injury luck. Most teams would’ve folded after losing their best position player (Ronald Acuña Jr.) and best starting pitcher (Spencer Strider). That didn’t happen in Atlanta. If Acuña and Strider return as expected and the Braves avoid terrible injury luck elsewhere, they should be right there in October — and anything can happen in October. — Castillo
