Feb 26, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

For some teams, the make-or-break game on the schedule is pretty clear — a nonconference matchup against a big-name program or a showdown with a hated rival.

But sometimes the season-defining game sneaks up on a team. Maybe it’s an unexpected loss that sends a team into a tailspin, or a last-second win that sparks a hot streak.

Either way, there always are certain games that fans circle on the calendar with a heightened sense of anticipation. (We suspect players and coaches do too, but good luck getting them to admit it.)

With that in mind, we asked our college football reporters to predict what the season-defining game will be for all 68 power-conference teams in 2026.

Jump to a conference:

Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now

Oct. 24 vs. Indiana. Ohio State is always the defining game for the Wolverines. But Michigan can prove it’s for real again against the defending national champs after two up-and-down seasons under Sherrone Moore. The Wolverines failed to defeat a ranked team last year and didn’t win one in 2024 until the stunning victory over the Buckeyes in the regular-season finale. — Trotter

Oct. 24 vs. Iowa. The Gophers got embarrassed last season in Iowa City 41-3, and the Hawkeyes have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in the rivalry. To get back the Floyd of Rosedale trophy, the Gophers will have to finally figure out how they can generate offense against Iowa. Minnesota has failed to score more than 14 points over the last four meetings in the series. — Trotter

Oct. 31 vs. Washington. Huskers coach Matt Rhule is 0-10 against AP Top 25 opponents since landing in Lincoln (and 2-26 in such games for his career). Nebraska hasn’t beaten a ranked foe since 2016. That reality simply has to change if the Huskers are going to take another step in 2026. With daunting home games against Indiana and Ohio State and trips to Oregon and Iowa on the schedule, Nebraska’s best opportunity to sort the matter could come with a bit of Halloween magic when Washington pays a visit to Memorial Stadium in Week 9. — Lederman

Oct. 2 vs. Penn State. Northwestern’s decades-long wait for a new stadium ends with the unveiling of Ryan Field, the $862 million venture that is the largest stadium project in college football history. After playing their first two home games on campus, the Wildcats will move into their new home for a Friday night showcase game against Penn State, a team they upset last year in coach James Franklin’s final game with the Nittany Lions. Northwestern is hopeful that the 35,000-seat facility provides the home-field advantage the program has historically lacked. — Rittenberg

Nov. 7 vs. Oregon. Good luck finding a tougher schedule in college football than what the Buckeyes face next season. Ohio State travels to Texas, Iowa, Indiana and USC — any of which could be season-defining games before November. Assuming the Buckeyes can survive that gauntlet, a home bout against the Ducks figures to have major Big Ten title and playoff implications. Beat Oregon, and the Buckeyes should be back in the playoff, even if they stumble once or twice earlier in the season. — Trotter

Nov. 7 at Ohio State. With quarterback Dante Moore and other key contributors returning, the Ducks enter a season where anything short of a national title could be deemed disappointing. They visit USC in Week 4 and also visit Illinois, but Ohio State likely will provide the first gauge of their championship worthiness. Oregon hasn’t forgotten the beating it took from the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal two years ago. The Ducks won their last game at Ohio Stadium, but that was as a Pac-12 member in 2021. — Connelly

Oct. 17 at Michigan. If there were a Big Ten schedule tailor-made for a first-year head coach, this would be it. Matt Campbell doesn’t have to face Ohio State or Oregon. He gets USC at home. The nonconference schedule includes Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. In theory, Penn State could be undefeated heading into Ann Arbor. It’s the first of the team’s two toughest road trips, with Washington the other. If Campbell can win the battle of first-year coaches in Ann Arbor, Penn State could make a surprise run at the CFP. — Dinich

Sept. 19 at UCLA. A Week 3 game is not usually season-defining, but Purdue must establish early on that coach Barry Odom’s second season will be different, especially in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers went 0-9 in league games last fall while being outscored 309-130. UCLA is in transition under new coach Bob Chesney, and a Purdue win in Pasadena — the team’s first game there since the 2001 Rose Bowl behind quarterback Drew Brees — could be the catalyst Odom needs. — Rittenberg

Sept. 19 vs. USC. What if — just what if — the Scarlet Knights can knock off the Trojans at home and earn a 4-0 September start before Indiana comes to town Oct. 3? If Rutgers is going to reach six wins this year, it’s going to have to win early and win at home. The Scarlet Knights avoid Ohio State and Oregon, but an early home upset will be critical with four of the final seven games on the road. — Dinich

Nov. 28 vs. USC. The Bruins seemingly have a long way to go before they’ll be viewed as competitively relevant in the Big Ten, but in this era that can happen overnight. That’s why the range of what’s possible in Bob Chesney’s first year as coach is so broad. There isn’t really one game on their schedule that outweighs the rest until the rivalry game in the finale. — Bonagura

Sept. 26 vs. Oregon. It could easily change by the end of the year, but USC’s trajectory for 2026 will be set by how it fares against the Ducks in the fourth game of the season. A loss to the Ducks will keep USC outside the national conversation just as conference play begins, while a win would signify a meaningful step toward returning to national relevance. — Bonagura

Nov. 21 vs. Indiana. The Huskies should enter 2026 with high expectations and have a relatively manageable schedule over the first two months. However, with Indiana and Oregon to end the year, a strong start to the season could easily get wiped away. A win against the Hoosiers, though, would be the program’s biggest win in years. — Bonagura

Sept. 26 at Penn State. Coach Luke Fickell and the Badgers desperately need an early notable win to change the overall trajectory of the program. Could they get it in State College against the Nittany Lions, who are retooling under new coach Matt Campbell? This will be the conference debut for new quarterback Colton Joseph, who transferred in from Old Dominion after being named the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. QB consistency has held the Badgers back in recent seasons. They are hopeful Joseph can finally solve that. — Trotter

Nov. 7 vs. Miami. If you need the history lesson, you can probably find a rerun on the ACC Network. Too soon? Notre Dame’s 27-24 loss at Miami in the 2025 season opener was the reason the Irish dropped from No. 10 to No. 11 on Selection Day, falling out of the College Football Playoff. This year, under a new rule, Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the CFP if it finishes in the top 12. A home win against Miami could be equally as important in a head-to-head debate in December. — Dinich

SEC

Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. Coming off an 11-4 season, Kalen DeBoer will be under pressure to turn the Crimson Tide around. Alabama should be 5-0 going into its home game against Georgia, and a victory over the Bulldogs would cement Alabama’s status as an SEC title contender. With three straight games against Tennessee (road), Texas A&M (home) and LSU (road) looming next, the Tide need to win the first one. — Mark Schlabach

Sept. 19 vs. Georgia. I want to be clear that I don’t think the result of a game for a first-year head coach against one of the standard-bearers of the SEC is necessarily going to define Arkansas’ season. That feels extreme, so I’m cheating a bit here. I do think this game could have a lot of sway in building momentum for a program that needs to feel something. If Ryan Silverfield has his team competing against the Bulldogs this early, it could be a potentially massive building block. — Lyles

Sept. 19 vs. Florida. The Tigers have suffered through five straight losing seasons, and now they’ve turned to former South Florida coach Alex Golesh to get things back on track. Golesh’s hiring received mixed reviews on the Plains, and he could certainly earn some respect with a victory over the Gators in the SEC opener. He guided the Bulls to an 18-16 upset of the Gators on the road last season. — Schlabach

Oct. 31 vs. Georgia. A good starting point for new coach Jon Sumrall is to beat rival Georgia, something predecessor Billy Napier never did. Florida has lost eight of its last nine games to the Bulldogs, its worst stretch since the 1970s. Given the shifting SEC schedules, Georgia is the only annual SEC rival remaining on the schedule. Florida must find a way to win. — Adelson

Oct. 10 at Alabama. The Bulldogs exorcised some of their Crimson Tide demons by routing Alabama 28-7 in last season’s SEC championship game. It was Georgia’s second victory in eight tries against Alabama under coach Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs’ last victory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, came in 2007, when current NFL MVP Matthew Stafford threw a 25-yard touchdown in overtime in a 26-23 win. — Schlabach

Oct. 3 at South Carolina. The SEC didn’t do new Wildcats coach Will Stein any favors with the schedule in his first season. After opening conference play against Alabama (home) and Texas A&M (road), the Wildcats might be looking to avoid an 0-3 start in league play when they travel to South Carolina. The Gamecocks have won four straight in the series. — Schlabach

Nov. 14 vs. Texas. It would have been easy to pick the Ole Miss matchup, but it is hard to pick games in September as season-defining. Alabama or Tennessee would fit the bill here, too. But given where this game falls in the schedule — and the preseason CFP expectations for both teams — this could be the one that ultimately defines the season for the Tigers. — Adelson

Sept. 26 vs. Missouri. Jeff Lebby will be working with another drastically remodeled roster in 2026 and could desperately use some early traction. After road trips to Minnesota and South Carolina, this game could produce a win, a 3-1 record and happy headlines. Or it could produce a loss, a 1-3 record and a very hot seat for the head coach. — Connelly

Oct. 10 vs. Texas A&M. For all the games Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers have won over the last couple of years, they’ve lost two to Mike Elko’s Aggies by a combined 52 points. Plus, this game starts a brutal stretch that includes home games against the Aggies, Texas and Oklahoma, and trips to Ole Miss and Georgia. However Mizzou’s season is going to end up, we’ll probably know after this one. — Connelly

Sept. 26 at Georgia. Sandwiched between a Week 2 trip to Michigan and an Oct. 10 matchup with Red River rival Texas, the Sooners’ Week 4 trip to Sanford Stadium could be a pivotal swing game for Brent Venables & Co. Beat the Bulldogs in Athens, and Oklahoma will roll into the Cotton Bowl with one of the best résumé wins of any CFP contender, no matter what happens in Ann Arbor on Sept. 12. Conversely, an SEC-opening defeat to Georgia (potentially in the wake of a road loss at Michigan) will place the Sooners’ playoff hopes in a perilous spot before the end of September and add an extra layer of pressure to the ever-unpredictable annual meeting with the Longhorns in Dallas two weeks later. — Lederman

Sept. 19 vs. LSU. Former Rebels coach Lane Kiffin’s return to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi, is going to be the most anticipated game in the SEC — if not the entire FBS — this season. Ole Miss coach Pete Golding would collect a lot of equity by knocking off his former boss, who is going to hear it from Ole Miss fans. — Schlabach

Sept. 26 at Alabama. Two years ago, a near-upset of Alabama prompted a late-season charge that earned South Carolina a lofty preseason ranking in 2025. Last season, a failed upset of Alabama confirmed that the Gamecocks would in no way reach those lofty expectations. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers gets an early shot at the Tide this time around, and one way or another, this result will help to define what’s to come in Columbia. — Connelly

Sept. 26 vs. Texas. For one, it’s the Vols’ SEC opener. Second, it’s Texas’ first-ever trip to Knoxville, and fans are going to be riled up for “The REAL UT” debate. This is a classic “measuring stick” game. The Vols are breaking in a new quarterback with Joey Aguilar’s legal attempts to gain another year being denied, and the much-maligned defense will get a makeover with longtime DC Jim Knowles taking over. Taking on Texas’ retooled offense around Arch Manning will show if the defense is ready to help Tennessee bounce back. — Wilson

Oct. 10 vs. Oklahoma. The Longhorns are eagerly awaiting a home rematch with Ohio State on Sept. 12, with experience under Arch Manning’s belt. But, like last season, they could lose that game and still have plenty to play for. As always, Oklahoma is a pivotal game, with a trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee before it, followed by a bye week before the Sooners. Win there, get Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State at home, then a trip to Missouri, and the schedule sets up for a massive finish with trips to LSU and Texas A&M with Arkansas at home sandwiched in the middle. The Longhorns have big ambitions, and this OU game will be for more than bragging rights. — Wilson

Nov. 27 vs. Texas. For everything Mike Elko has done in two seasons at the helm in College Station to get the Aggies back into the national picture, the game against Texas the last two years has come with a chance for an SEC championship appearance on the line. The Longhorns won both games, keeping the Aggies home from Atlanta with bitter losses in a renewed rivalry that never really went away. With the game returning to College Station this year, the Aggies will need to vanquish the Horns to get to where they want to go and get over the hump. — Wilson

Oct. 10 vs. Ole Miss. The Commodores’ schedule has its ebbs and flows, with four winnable games to open the season, followed by a road trip to Georgia, which would test any team in the country. In the post-Diego Pavia era, this will be the first gauge for how far the Vanderbilt program has come. But Ole Miss the next week at home is the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the year, followed by Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State. A big win over Ole Miss could jump-start that stretch before the Commodores finish with Alabama, Florida and Tennessee. — Wilson