2025 Melbourne Cup Day tips: Who should you back in every race?


We’re back! It’s the race that stops the nation and, in 2025, it’s shaping to be another classic. Vauban returns for a third attempt under a new camp, alongside former stablemate Absurde. Champion trainer Chris Waller dominates the field with five runners, while history will be made with the first-ever American-trained horse taking part. Half Yours is the favourite and will fly the flag for the locals.
But outside of that, there are plenty more races to sink your teeth into. Not sure who to back? Not to worry, as we take you through the best selections and some value runners in Tuesday’s 10-race card at the glorious Flemington racecourse.

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TAB fixed odds correct as of 9am AEDT, 3rd November, 2025 (please visit tab.com.au for the latest).
RACE 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m), 10:45am
With only three of the 14 runners having race experience and the track set to be rain-affected, this is a tough way to kick off Cup Day. On exposed form, Tornado Valley was held up at a key stage in the Debutant Stakes but hit the line strongly once clear behind Free Flying. Among the unraced brigade, Carnevale and Diameter have shown glimpses in jump outs and could be anything on debut, while Brazen Dechambeau displayed a nice turn of foot when asked for an effort in his Cranbourne jumpout.
Top selections:
2. Tornado Valley ($7.00)
3. Brazen Dechambeau ($7.00)
5. Diameter ($6.00)
4. Carnevale ($4.80)
8. Free Flying ($11.00)
RACE 2 – MA Services Grand Handicap (2000m), 11:20am
It’s hard to go past Makdane, who’s in good form, maps nicely from barrier 1, and should handle the soft ground. Brave Miss will make her own luck up on speed, her last-start win at Cranbourne looks strong, and she finished third behind She’s A Hustler prior to that, who franked the form with a Group 3 Tesio Stakes win on Cox Plate Day. Party Crasher can be forgiven for the first-up run and I expect him to improve rising in distance second-up.
Top selections:
3. Makdane ($3.90)
7. Brave Miss ($6.50)
10. Party Crasher ($7.00)
14. Giggenbach ($7.50)
RACE 3 – TAB Trophy (1800m), 12:00pm
There looks to be a fair bit of value here. I’ve got Snitz Sonic on top, he’s been the strongest late in both of his runs and couldn’t have been more emphatic in his Echuca win. Arabian Prince was unlucky not to get a start in the 2500m Victoria Derby but will instead race at 1800m, he did seem to peak on his run late in the Caulfield Classic but profiles to be a contender here. Champagne Hero and Different Gravy both look like they have a bit to offer, and Island Boy looks a sneaky chance at big odds.
Top selections:
8. Snitz Sonic ($11.00)
9. Arabian Prince ($3.80)
3. Champagne Hero ($4.60)
4. Different Gravy ($4.60)
6. Island Boy ($41.00)
READ: 2025 Melbourne Cup field – complete guide
RACE 4 – The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m), 12:40pm
Bold Secret is having his third start for Phillip Stokes and looks to have plenty of upside. He was strong late off a slow tempo on debut, clocking the fastest final 200m of the race, before enduring a tough run wide without cover at The Valley. Drawn to get a softer run this time. Pallaton has been tackling stronger company than this, gets James McDonald on, and is a clear danger. As it Street Artist who is flying with consecutive wins for Team Freedman and warrants respect again.
Top selections:
9. Bold Secret ($9.00)
4. Street Artist ($4.40)
2. Pallaton ($2.70)
1. Aleppo Pine ($7.50)
RACE 5 – Australian Heritage Cup (2800m), 1:20pm
Golden Century looks ready to step up to 2800m and he’s a big-striding horse who will appreciate the big Flemington track over the tighter Caulfield circuit, where he was back in the field but closed off well last time out. Drops sharply in weight from that and looks a major player with Joao Moreira aboard. Don Diego De Vega was solid hitting the line for fourth in the Bendigo Cup, and while his Randwick run prior was below par, he hasn’t been suited by the slow tempos in recent starts. Draws kindly and handles soft ground.
Top selections:
10. Golden Century ($4.80)
3. Don Diego De Vega ($8.50)
9. Litzdeel ($4.40)
8. Arugamama ($6.50)
RACE 6 – Kirin Ichiban Plate (1800m), 1:55pm
Saint George was the eye-catcher first-up at Seymour and looks set to take big improvement from that run. The long Flemington straight plays perfectly to his strengths and, at his best, he’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Apulia was outstanding resuming after a year off, storming home from the back of the field to win and should only be fitter here. Athanatos is in terrific form this prep and his Toorak Handicap effort behind the likes of Leica Lucy, Evaporate, and Transatlantic reads well for this grade. The only query is how he handles the likely wet track.
Top selections:
5. Saint George ($4.40)
2. Apulia ($6.50)
6. Athanatos ($5.00)
3. Kingswood ($4.60)
RACE 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3:00pm
Once again, the Caulfield Cup looms as the key form reference, and it’s a race that produced several eye-catching performances. You couldn’t miss the big grey Presage Nocturne charging down the outside there. The French import is certain to improve off that run and should relish the step to 3200m at Flemington. He handles rain-affected ground, and while others may feel the pinch late, he’s proven to be able to power through the line at the end of a staying trip.
Valiant King was another standout from that race and is absolutely flying this campaign. A completely different horse this prep with the blinkers on, he was brilliant winning the Bart Cummings before unleashing the fastest closing splits in the Caulfield Cup. He gets in with a nice weight and maps for a soft run. As does Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours who deserves favouritism despite being up for a long campaign which began in a BM64 back in March. Tony and Calvin McEvoy have managed him superbly and set him to peak in the 2400m race so as much as the Melbourne Cup appears a bit of an afterthought, his wet-track ability, light weight and good draw makes him a winning chance again. Absurde returns for a third attempt at the Cup and was travelling well before being blocked for a run at his Caulfield tune-up. He was luckless last year when held up multiple times in the straight, but we know he stays, handles soft going, and maps ideally from gate four.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained Al Riffa is this year’s big boom horse. The Irish raider comes off wins in both the Irish St Leger and Curragh Cup and clearly brings elite European form. He’s earned the top weight (59kg) and history says that’s a brutal task, especially over two miles on rain-affected ground from a wide draw, but class can often defy history, and he has that in spades. The main challenge will be conceding weight to several in-form, lightly-weighted rivals.
Lightly-raced northern hemisphere three-year-old Furthur has had just eight starts and beats the handicapper with 52kg. He fits the successful profile of past winners like Rekindling and Cross Counter, as well as desperately-unlucky 2019 runner Il Paradiso. He displayed a devastating turn of foot when winning the Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 2715m two starts back, a race that has been a solid guide for the Melbourne Cup in past years. There’s a wet track query with him but he’s a good enough price to find out if he can handle it.
Buckaroo brings class and proven Group 1 Australian weight-for-age form, but the 3200m remains a genuine query and he’ll need a perfect ride to figure. German stayer Flatten The Curve is an interesting roughie in red-hot form winning six of his past seven races, and while the strength of that form is hard to line up, he’s a genuine two-miler and could surprise at decent odds. And Vauban — now under the care of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott — while plain in the Caulfield Cup, is back on a more suitable Flemington track, gets rain-affected going, has drawn in barrier two with Blake Shinn on, and is more than capable of bouncing back.
Top selections:
6. Presage Nocturne ($9.00)
24. Valiant King ($8.50)
17. Furthur ($26.00)
9. Absurde ($18.00)
1. Al Riffa ($9.00)
READ: 2025 Melbourne Cup field – complete guide
RACE 8 – The Amanda Elliott (1400m), 3:50pm
Ludlum was luckless on debut behind Tres Magnifique before winning a maiden at Seymour, doing it tough three wide without cover but still proving too strong. Navy Pilot was a second-up winner powering past key rival Bacash, and while he didn’t see out the mile in the Caulfield Guineas, the drop back to 1400m looks ideal. Bacash continues to hold his form well, he’s a proven wet tracker and was a dominant winner at this trip last start at Caulfield. Burma Star has won in heavy conditions and has been hitting the line well. This is tougher but he’s right in the mix.
Top selections:
15. Ludlum ($5.00)
2. Navy Pilot ($6.50)
4. Bacash ($5.50)
8. Burma Star ($9.00)
RACE 9 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m), 4:35pm
Surfin’ Bird was an arrogant winner at Caulfield last start, surging past her rivals to win by four lengths despite covering extra ground throughout, and she did it in very quick time. She’s clearly the one to beat and might simply be too good again. Pondalowie looks terrific value though as an each-way play. She’s improved with every run this prep, running the fastest last 200m at Group 2 level third-up before again closing strongly in the Vase behind Oh Too Good. She tends to get back in her races but has a blistering turn of foot and runs well at Flemington.
Top selections:
14. Pondalowie ($17.00)
15. Surfin’ Bird ($2.60)
10. Gumdrops ($7.50)
5. Bossy Nic ($13.00)
RACE 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (1400m), 5:15pm
Sabaj had no luck in the Silver Eagle. He was held up until the 100m and should have finished a lot closer to the classy Linebacker at Randwick. That’s elite form and with clear running he should be too good for these. I do have a of time for Sunshineinmypocket who had excuses last start behind Ndola. He was able to close off well with the fastest final furlong of the race and I think he can turn the tables on the winner.
Top selections:
8. Sabaj ($2.70)
7. Sunshineinmypocket ($7.00)
3. Ndola ($6.00)
12. Persian Spirit ($8.00)