Last year, in the inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff, eight of the teams that qualified had two losses.

Five of the seven at-large teams had two losses, and three of the five conference champions had at least two losses. Keep that in mind as more contenders fall each week and the playoff picture changes — this system is more forgiving.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in

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    Enigma: Iowa. The Hawkeyes have quietly won four of their past five games, that lone loss coming Sept. 27 to Indiana — by a whopping five points. Is that really the gap between Iowa and the nation’s No. 2 team? Iowa has a chance to prove it in the second half of the season with back-to-back games against Oregon and at USC. Iowa would have to run the table and finish 10-2 to have a chance — and ESPN Analytics gives the Hawkeyes a less than 1% chance to do that. In addition to the loss to the Hoosiers, Iowa also lost at rival Iowa State, and the selection committee would consider that it was a close loss on the road early in the season to an in-state rival. It’s not a dagger — nor is a close loss to Indiana — but the Hawkeyes still have a lot to prove, and it won’t be easy. Iowa has less than a 50% chance to beat Oregon, USC and Nebraska.

    If the playoff were today

    Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

    On the cusp: None

    Work to do: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, USC

    Would be out: Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Washington

    Out: Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

    ACC

    Spotlight: Virginia. Following Miami’s loss to Louisville, the two teams with the highest chance to reach the ACC championship game are now Georgia Tech (62.3%) and Virginia (39.4%). The Cavaliers’ 30-27 overtime win at Louisville looks even better after the Cardinals knocked off Miami. The Sept. 6 loss at NC State will be a sticking point in the committee meeting room if the Cavaliers don’t win the ACC, though, or finish as a two-loss runner-up. Virginia isn’t likely to play a ranked CFP opponent in the second half of the season, but that also means running the table is a realistic scenario. According to ESPN Analytics, the only remaining game Virginia isn’t favored to win is Nov. 15 at Duke.

    Enigma: Louisville. Any team that has a chance to win its conference has a chance to make the 12-team CFP, and Louisville has a 19.5% chance to reach the ACC title game and a 16% chance to win out. The Cardinals could be a CFP top-25 team if they continue to play like they did in their win at Miami. Their lone loss was in overtime to Virginia, and they now have a statement win against a CFP contender in Miami. Their problem is the rest of their résumé, but a nonconference win against James Madison is respectable, considering the Dukes are 6-1 in the Sun Belt with an outside chance at the playoff. The win against Pitt is decent, as the Panthers are over .500, but Louisville needs to look the part down the stretch, as only Cal and SMU are over .500 and nobody is ranked. The only game left on the Cardinals’ schedule they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at SMU, according to ESPN Analytics.

    If the playoff were today

    Would be in: Miami, Georgia Tech

    On the cusp: Virginia

    Work to do: Louisville

    Would be out: Cal, Duke, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Wake Forest

    Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

    Big 12

    Spotlight: Texas Tech. The close loss at Arizona State knocked the Red Raiders out of the top-12 projection and onto the bubble. If Texas Tech wins the Big 12 but finishes outside the selection committee’s top 12, it would still lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The Red Raiders are still on track to do that and have the best chance (61%) of any team in the Big 12 to reach the conference championship, followed by undefeated BYU (59.1%). Those teams play each other on Nov. 8, and Texas Tech will have home-field advantage. The two can face each other again in the Big 12 title game. Where it gets tricky is if Texas Tech finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Some of it would depend on how the Red Raiders lost in the title game and how ASU fares down the stretch. Texas Tech has the seventh-best chance in the country to win out (23.2%), according to ESPN Analytics.

    Enigma: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are undefeated in Big 12 play and 6-1 overall, with their lone loss in the season opener to Nebraska. The question is if they can sustain their success against the No. 26 most difficult remaining schedule in the second half of the season. They have the third-best chance to reach the conference championship behind Texas Tech and BYU — two teams that still have to play each other. Cincy doesn’t play the Red Raiders, but it will face BYU on Nov. 22 at home. November road trips to Utah and TCU also won’t be easy, as ESPN Analytics gives Cincinnati a less than 50% chance to win each of those games.

    If the playoff were today

    Would be in: BYU

    On the cusp: Texas Tech

    Work to do: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston

    Would be out: Arizona, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah

    Out: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

    Independent

    On the cusp: Notre Dame. With the win against USC, the Irish climbed to No. 12 in this week’s CFP projection — quite a turnaround from the 0-2 start. But they would still be out if the playoff were today because the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is again projected to be South Florida, is outside of the committee’s top 12. That means the No. 12-ranked team gets excluded to include the Bulls. Notre Dame is in must-win mode for the rest of the season but still has the best chance of any team in the country (69.2%) to win out. If undefeated Navy can keep winning, the Irish might have another ranked opponent on their schedule to add to the USC win.

    Group of 5

    Bracket

    Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

    First-round byes

    No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
    No. 2 Indiana
    No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
    No. 4 Texas A&M

    First-round games

    On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

    No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
    No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
    No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
    No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon

    Quarterfinal games

    At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

    No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
    No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
    No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
    No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State