• Ryan S. Clark

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    Spencer Carbery has rightfully earned Jack Adams chatter for the way he’s built this Washington team into a true contender. There aren’t many flaws to pick at when you’ve shown the type of consistency this crew has. Washington’s skids have been few and far between, and it has rarely lost two in a row. That regular-season success should segue nicely into what’s next.

    X factor: It’s true Washington has a reliable No. 1 in Thompson — but he may not be available to start the postseason while rehabbing an upper-body injury. The Capitals have leaned on Charlie Lindgren in Thompson’s stead and project to keep doing so until Thompson is healthy.

    Will Lindgren be able to stand tall early in the first round? Lindgren (.896 SV%, 2.73 GAA) hasn’t produced the same numbers as Thompson (.910 SV%, 2.49 GAA). Suddenly, goaltending becomes a serious potential roadblock for Washington. If the Capitals want to see their season extended for weeks — and not days — they’ll have to support Lindgren even more than they would Thompson with a defense-first mindset. Because even with the likes of Ovechkin up front, it’s nearly impossible to outscore your own defensive woes come the playoffs.

    Player to watch: Tom Wilson. There’s something about Wilson and the postseason. He’s always been the Capitals’ heavy, but there’s an extra pep in Wilson’s step when the playoffs roll around. He’s going to make the other team uncomfortable, getting under guys’ skin and generally causing the sort of chaos that can throw things off. Washington needs that energy. The Capitals have plenty of finesse elsewhere, and while Wilson can score with the best of them — he has 33 goals this season, after all — it’s the extra punch (sometimes literally) Wilson can provide that makes him a standout this time of year.

    Bold prediction: Washington’s offense is slowed in the first round when Ovechkin fails to score a single goal. Its heated second-round series ends in frustration when Washington’s defense can’t hold up and it is sent packing.

    Record: 47-30-5, 99 points
    First-round opponent: Devils

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: Carolina has its identity and sticks to it. The Hurricanes are a perennial contender because they’re elite at 5-on-5, consistently stifle their opponents (by allowing the fewest shots in the league), while simultaneously making the competition uncomfortable (by peppering in the second-most shots on goal this season). Carolina has improved its play off the rush and remains as stout as ever on defense. It has received strong goaltending from Frederik Andersen (.907 SV%, 2.29 GAA) and has the league’s best penalty kill.

    It has been Carolina’s defensive details that set it apart, and those are never more valuable than in the playoffs. The Hurricanes have also leaned on a breakout offensive performance from Seth Jarvis. (He has a team-leading 32 goals.) Carolina has done the work to set itself up for success.

    X factor: Is Carolina deep enough to actually go deep in the playoffs? The Hurricanes do an excellent job offensively of generating opportunities, but too often aren’t cashing in on them from enough players throughout the lineup. If Carolina can rely only on Jarvis and Sebastian Aho to consistently light the lamp then they become an easier team to pick off (especially considering their power play is 26th in the league, at 18.6%).

    And what about the goaltending depth? Andersen has been good since coming back from injury, but his young partner Pyotr Kochetkov has struggled (.898 SV%, 2.59 GAA). Andersen is always at risk of getting hurt and Carolina would be in lesser hands with Kochetkov taking over the crease. How the Hurricanes respond to potential adversities — and who can fill in the gaps — is key.

    Player to watch: Logan Stankoven. Carolina may not have Mikko Rantanen anymore, but it does have a player who came on board when Rantanen was traded to Dallas. Stankoven, a rookie, has been an impressive fit for the Hurricanes, with five goals and eight points in 17 games. And it feels like he’s hitting a stride at the right time. Stankoven can create chances for himself and teammates with an underrated playmaking ability and he’s an energy guy, too. That can go a long way in the close, tense games that Carolina projects to find itself in soon enough.

    Bold prediction: Despite Carolina’s decided edge in the first round, it falters too many times to recover. The Hurricanes fail to advance for the first time since 2020 and for just the second time under coach Rod Brind’Amour.

    Record: 42-33-7, 91 points
    First-round opponent: Hurricanes

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: New Jersey has the ingredients to be a surprise success story in the postseason. The Devils’ special teams are among the league’s best, with a third-ranked power play (28%) and second-ranked penalty kill (82.4%). New Jersey is tough to crack all around though, allowing the fifth-fewest goals this season (2.65) and sixth-fewest shots (26.3).

    The Devils’ solid goalie tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen should leave them feeling confident that whoever is back there will be steering enough pucks aside. And if New Jersey can make life hard on the opponent and wear them down with a strong defensive effort, then it will take some of the sting out of not having top scorer Jack Hughes available due to injury.

    X factor: All of that said, Hughes isn’t easily replaceable (as we’ve seen in New Jersey’s struggles since Hughes underwent surgery in March). The Devils are 30th in 5-on-5 scoring without Hughes, and replacing his contributions in the playoffs is critical to how far they can advance. Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are averaging over a point per game following Hughes’ departure, and having Dougie Hamilton back for the playoffs should help generate more scoring opportunities from the back end.

    The first round will pit New Jersey against a sturdy defensive club in Carolina. It’ll take all the firepower these Devils can muster to make up for Hughes’ absence and every single opportunity to use that vaunted power play can’t be taken for granted.

    Player to watch: Hischier. It’s easy for Hischier to fly under the radar when Hughes is around. Now, consider Hischier in the spotlight. His ability as a two-way center will carry the Devils’ top-heavy attack, but Hischier will also have a target on his back. Ultimately, slowing him down will make New Jersey that much more one-dimensional. How Hischier handles the hurricane ahead will decide whether the Devils sink or swim.

    Bold prediction: New Jersey plays fast and loose and it pays off against a stiff Carolina team in the first round. The Devils glide through the second round as one of the playoffs’ best offensive teams and wind up another Cinderella story (this time, playoff edition).

    Record: 40-31-11, 91 points
    First-round opponent: Capitals

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: Montreal found its mojo at the right moment. Who would have thought as the Canadiens endured a five-game slide through the end of March that they’d follow it up with six straight wins to put a playoff berth back on the table?

    The postseason is all about momentum and confidence. The Canadiens may have needed a few extra games to ultimately secure their spot but what does Montreal have to lose, really? While other clubs are saddled with pressure to win now, the Canadiens can truly be happy just having their seat at the party. And that’s a good thing.

    Montreal stepped up in the second half of this season, averaging over three goals per game since late February while allowing fewer than three across the line. Nick Suzuki has averaged over a point per game, and Cole Caufield has collected an impressive 37 goals. Rookie defenseman Lane Hutson is having a Calder Trophy-worthy season, and the Canadiens have continuously shown they have sound depth. Montreal has made it this far. There’s reason to believe it can keep the good times rolling.

    X factor: The Canadiens will be taking on a high-flying Washington team out of the gate. Can Montreal’s goaltending keep things from getting out of hand? Sam Montembeault was great during that five-game stretch to put the Canadiens in playoff position, and he, like the rest of the team, was better in the season’s second half. Now, Montreal just needs Montembeault to hold the Capitals’ elite offense at bay long enough for the Canadiens’ own snipers to get on the board. Montembeault has carried a heavy load already for Montreal this year (with 60 starts) and his stats are good (.901 SV% and 2.83 GAA). The Canadiens will need greatness from their goaltenders if they expect to move on.

    Player to watch: Ivan Demidov. Name the last player who arrived in Montreal to Demidov-level fanfare? (We’ll wait). Turns out, though, the hype was real. Demidov stepped into his first NHL game last week and was on the scoresheet with a goal and an assist. Montreal may have lost that night to Chicago, but Demidov was an undeniable boost for the group as they searched for that eventual clinching victory. And considering how unfazed Demidov appears at the NHL level, it’ll be fascinating to see what he can provide for Montreal in the postseason.

    Bold prediction: Montreal takes Game 1 to win their first playoff game in four years and put some doubt into the Capitals. The Canadiens hold off Ovechkin the entire way in a six-game series they eventually lose.

    Central Division

    Record: 56-22-4, 116 points
    First-round opponent: Blues

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: Few teams are as complete as the Jets have been this season, one in which they won the Presidents’ Trophy for the league’s best record. They took a step forward in their evolution in the first season under Scott Arniel, who was an associate coach with the Jets for the past two campaigns.

    They get consistent offensive contributions from their forward lines, while also getting scoring from defensemen. Their defensive structure is among the best in the league at limiting scoring chances, while they have what might be a future Hall of Famer in Connor Hellebuyck in net.

    X factor: Can their regular-season continuity translate to playoff success? This is, once again, the biggest question facing the Jets heading into the postseason. They won 52 games last season, faced the Avalanche in the first round — and were eliminated in five games for a second consecutive postseason.

    Fast forward to this year. They’ve won more than 50 games for a second straight season, while having personnel who look as if they can be trusted in every situation. Does it lead to them getting out of the first round? Or will it be a third straight early exit?

    Player to watch: Hellebuyck. He’s in line to win a second consecutive Vezina Trophy, which would be his third overall. That would place Hellebuyck among Hall of Famers Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy. But any time there’s a discussion about Hellebuyck’s status among all-time greats, it includes his relative lack of success in the postseason. That came up last season, when he had a personal-low .870 save percentage in the Jets’ five-game series loss. On the whole, he’s 18-27 with a 2.85 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage in his postseason career. Is this the year he turns it around?

    Bold prediction: Gabriel Vilardi, who has only two goals in 12 career playoff games, will lead the Jets in goals this postseason.

    Record: 50-26-6, 106 points
    First-round opponent: Avalanche

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Stars are certainly in a championship window, having advanced to three Western Conference finals in the past five years. But there’s more to it than that. The core of those teams remains in place. They’ve found ways to add to that core, and newcomers assimilate quickly.

    Despite already having one of the most talented teams in the NHL, the Stars traded for one of the game’s best players in Mikko Rantanen, who has won a Stanley Cup. Adding Rantanen only heightens the expectations this could be the year for the Stars.

    X factor: Can they be stopped in a Game 7? You may have heard that Stars coach Peter DeBoer is quite adept at Game 7s. His teams are 8-0, which is not only the best all-time record for Game 7s in NHL history, but it’s the best mark of any coach in North American men’s pro sports history.

    While he’s been with the Stars for only two seasons, each postseason has seen the Stars tap into what has made DeBoer so crucial in those winner-take-all games. And with a first-round date against the Avalanche? It’s possible DeBoer’s Game 7 tactics could come into play again.

    Player to watch: Rantanen. There’s the theatrical aspect — watching a player who never thought he was going to leave the franchise that drafted him play a role in eliminating them months after being traded. But what’s greater than the drama is the Stars altered their entire team-building philosophy by dealing draft picks and a rookie roster player to get him, because they believe someone who has 101 points in 81 career playoff games can lead to them winning the second title in franchise history.

    Bold prediction: Rantanen will either score or set up two of the game-winning goals in the first round against the Avalanche.

    Record: 49-29-4, 102 points
    First-round opponent: Stars

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: What’s essentially doomed the Avs since they won the Stanley Cup back in 2022 is a lack of consistent secondary and tertiary scoring. It’s something they’ve tried to fix on multiple occasions, only to end up course correcting. But, the trades they’ve made this season have given them not only their strongest roster since they won the Cup, but a group that has the potential to be just as good as that title-winning team. That group will be put to the test quickly in the first round against the Stars.

    X factor: Their supporting cast. Relying on their role players was crucial to why they averaged more than four goals per game en route to knocking out the Jets in five games in the opening round last spring. But that changed against the Stars in Round 2. A lack of consistent secondary scoring, among other items, resulted in the Avs notching six total goals in the four games they lost to the Stars in the second round.

    Player to watch: Gabriel Landeskog. The Avalanche captain played his first professional game in nearly three years for the Avs’ AHL affiliate this past weekend. After logging 15 minutes in his first game, he scored a goal and had an assist in his second game, while his surgically repaired knee didn’t give him any issues. It sets the stage for Landeskog returning this postseason, and not only providing the Avs with a two-way net front presence who plays a responsible game, but someone who provides a calming influence in difficult situations.

    Bold prediction: Landeskog will score three goals in the first round against the Stars.

    Record: 44-30-8, 96 points
    First-round opponent: Jets

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: Since they hired Jim Montgomery in November, the Blues have talked about the adjustments they could make, and it led to an openness that led to contributions throughout their lineup. That became evident during a 12-game win streak across March and April that saw them catapult from wild-card hopeful to being in control of the wild-card race.

    Oh, and an in-season coaching change followed by a strong run to the playoffs and then a Stanley Cup for St. Louis? Yeah, we’ve seen that before.

    X factor: How far will their defensive structure take them? One of the biggest challenges facing the Blues before they hired Montgomery was the need for defensive consistency. They hired assistant Mike Weber to focus on defense, and added two-way forwards to help address the problem.

    Following Montgomery’s arrival, the Blues have steadily improved to the point where they’re among the best in the NHL in allowing high-danger chances per 60 minutes, while being in the top 13 in fewest shots allowed per 60 and scoring chances per 60.

    Player to watch: Jordan Binnington. For months ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off, much was made about Canada’s relative weakness in goal. The team turned to Binnington, who was instrumental in helping Canada win February’s best-on-best tournament. His exploits since have translated into success for the Blues. Given the changes under Montgomery coupled with what Binnington has done, could it lead to the Blues going on a run this postseason?

    Bold prediction: Despite the Jets having the NHL’s top power play, the Blues will limit them to only two goals with the extra-skater advantage.

    Pacific Division

    Record: 50-22-10, 110 points
    First-round opponent: Wild

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: By Vegas standards, this team has been quiet — but it has also been rather productive.

    Jack Eichel is no longer just an offensive threat. He’s developed into a complete, two-way forward who can be used in any situation. They’ve empowered Pavel Dorofeyev into becoming a 30-goal scorer. Goaltender Adin Hill went from being in a tandem to making more than 50 starts for the first time in his career. Those individual exploits are part of a collective that once again has the Golden Knights in a position to challenge for a second Stanley Cup in three years.

    X factor: Their strength in numbers. Winning that title in 2023 was largely made possible by the Golden Knights’ depth. That’s what made last offseason so jarring, because quite a bit of that depth left in free agency. The response? Eleven players finished 2024-25 with 10 or more goals. That group includes Dorofeyev but also Brett Howden, who went from 39 career goals in 351 career games entering this season to 23 goals in 2024-25.

    Player to watch: Tomas Hertl. Hertl had a difficult time after coming over via trade at the tail end of last season, as he was coming back from injury. That extended into the postseason, in which he finished with one point in seven games. But in his first full season with the club, Hertl has looked the part of a legitimate top-six forward, reaching the 30-goal mark for the third time in his career. Getting that version of Hertl means the Golden Knights could also get “Playoff Hertl,” who scored 16 goals and had 24 points in 29 games during his final two postseason campaigns with the San Jose Sharks.

    Bold prediction: Not only will Dorofeyev lead the Golden Knights in goals after the first round, but he will lead the Western Conference in goals.

    Record: 48-25-9, 105 points
    First-round opponent: Oilers

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Kings have gone through a few iterations over the past four years once their rebuild was complete. They’ve made big trades, spent quite a bit of money in free agency, shuffled through goaltenders, and fired and hired coaches only for it to all end in the same place the past three seasons: getting knocked out by the Oilers in the first round.

    This season, they’ve attained a level of consistency — both with their structure under Jim Hiller and in having roster continuity — that could make this spring end differently. And it helps that the goalie on whom they finally landed has shown up in a big way — even earning some Vezina consideration.

    X factor: Can their identity be the difference? A former assistant coach who went from interim coach to head coach this season, Hiller has developed the Kings into one of the more consistent teams in the NHL. Their underlying offensive metrics have them in the top 10 or just outside the top 10 in most shots per 60 minutes, goals per 60, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60.

    Defensively, they’re in the top three in fewest opportunities allowed in those same categories, while also being top three in team save percentage.

    Player to watch: Darcy Kuemper. All the changes the Kings have made in net have come with the intention of getting to the second round. So far, none of those adjustments has worked, which led them to get Kuemper. In only 34 career playoff games, he’s done quite a bit: helping the Arizona Coyotes win a round in the Edmonton bubble in 2020 and backstopping the Avs to a Stanley Cup in 2022. Does he add getting the Kings (finally) past the first round and the Oilers to his list of achievements?

    Bold prediction: Warren Foegele, who scored three playoff goals for the Oilers last season, will have a hat trick in the first round against his old team.

    Record: 48-29-5, 101 points
    First-round opponent: Kings

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Oilers were a game away from winning the Stanley Cup last year after falling into a three-game series hole against the Panthers. The entirety of their run reinforced the notion that they were more than just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. That they had the support cast who could be counted upon in critical sequences, while coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff seemingly had an adjustment for every situation.

    Even though the Oilers enter the playoffs facing a long list of injuries, they’re in a championship window — and have shown they can figure it out when needed.

    X factor: Can they fix the disconnect with their defense and goaltending? Everything about the Oilers’ underlying metrics suggests they’re one of the stronger defensive teams in the NHL this season. They’re in the top 10 in fewest scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes and the fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. They’re also 11th in shots allowed per 60.

    And yet, they are in the bottom 10 in team save percentage. How is it that the Oilers have been consistent with their structure but inconsistent in net? Answering that question could play a role in an early exit versus a protracted one.

    Player to watch: Stuart Skinner. Not that a team’s playoff fate hinges entirely on the actions of one player, but there’s attention on Skinner for a reason (in addition to everything in the previous section). The benching during last year’s playoffs seemed to be a wake-up call; thereafter, he was a consistent presence that played a significant role in the Oilers’ Cup Final run.

    But this season has arguably been his most difficult since becoming the Oilers’ No. 1. His .894 save percentage is his lowest in that time, while Skinner’s minus-10.34 goals saved above expected (per Natural Stat Trick) is the worst of any goalie who could potentially start for a playoff team.

    Bold prediction: Should the Oilers get past the Kings in the first round, they’ll return to the Stanley Cup Final.

    Record: 45-30-7, 97 points
    First-round opponent: Golden Knights

    Case for a Stanley Cup run: Just look at what they’ve been through this season. Kirill Kaprizov was having the best season of his career before he sustained a long-term injury, limiting him to 41 games. The Wild also had to navigate injuries to Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. They were in the bottom 10 of goals per game, shots per 60 minutes, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60.

    If they made it this far in a season in which they’ve played many tight games, shouldn’t playing those games now provide a sense of normalcy — especially with all of those players back in the lineup?

    X factor: Comfort in one-goal games. Yes, playoff games are different because one mistake can make the difference between winning a game or losing a series. But as noted above, the Wild know that concept all too well this season. They’ve played in 28 one-goal games and have won 18 of them. There was even one stretch in which they won four consecutive one-goal games.

    And for a team that was the worst in goals per game among Western Conference playoff teams? Those one-goal games could be crucial toward their aspirations.

    Player to watch: Zeev Buium. Although the Wild have a number of players who could be in this space, what makes Buium the pick here is the intrigue. From the moment they drafted him last summer, it created an expectation that he and Brock Faber could usher the Wild’s blue line into a new era. But above all, it gave the Wild another young, puck-moving defenseman who could play heavy minutes — and important minutes — when the time came. Buium has already filled that role with the University of Denver and the two-time gold-medal winning U.S. team at the World Juniors. He could be the next young blueliner who is asked to do the same in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

    Bold prediction: Marc-Andre Fleury will get at least one win against the Golden Knights, and if so, it will come at T-Mobile Arena.