DUNEDIN, Fla. — First baseman

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Guerrero followed with a pair of solid-but-below-expectations seasons in 2022 and 2023, and in mid-May of last season, he sported an OPS under .750 as the Blue Jays struggled en route to an eventual last-place finish. Over his last 116 games, the Guerrero of 2021 reemerged, as he hit .343/.407/.604 with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs.

Between Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette‘s free agency after the 2025 season, the Blue Jays faced a potential reckoning. While Bichette will play out the season and is widely expected not to re-sign with the Blue Jays, the team had hoped an extension for Guerrero would give them a franchise player around whom they could build.

With a payroll expected to exceed the luxury tax threshold of $241 million, the Blue Jays will field a team with playoff aspirations — and one that just as easily could find itself toward the bottom of the standings, with the defending AL champion New York Yankees, much-improved Boston Red Sox, always-solid Tampa Bay Rays and young-and-talented Baltimore Orioles in the same division.

Already this winter, Toronto shook off the signings of Soto and first baseman Pete Alonso with the Mets, left-hander Max Fried with the Yankees and infielder Alex Bregman with the Red Sox to retool their roster. Toronto gave outfielder Anthony Santander a heavily deferred five-year, $92.5 million contract, brought in future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer on a one-year, $15.5 million deal, bolstered its bullpen with right-handers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia, and traded for Platinum Glove-winning second baseman Andres Gimenez.

Toronto’s long-term commitments will allow for significant financial flexibility going forward — particularly if it re-allocates the hundreds of millions offered to Guerrero. In addition to Guerrero, Bichette and Scherzer, right-hander Chris Bassitt and relievers Chad Green and Erik Swanson are free agents following this season. Following 2026, the nine-figure deals of outfielder George Springer and right-hander Kevin Gausman come off the books as well.

Building around Guerrero would have been a good place to start. One of only a dozen players in MLB with at least two seasons of six or more Wins Above Replacement since 2021, Guerrero consistently finds himself near the top of MLB leaderboards in hardest-hit balls, a metric that typically translates to great success.

Like his father, who hit 449 home runs and batted .318 over a 16-year career, Guerrero has rare bat-to-ball skills, particularly for a player with top-of-the-scale power. In his six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 with 160 home runs, 507 RBIs and 551 strikeouts against 349 walks over 3,540 plate appearances.

“My dad played a lot of years, and he never won the World Series,” Guerrero said. “And I always say my personal goal is to win a World Series and give the ring to my dad. So that’s all I’m looking for.”

Originally a third baseman, Guerrero shifted to first base during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Had the Blue Jays signed Alonso, they signaled the possibility of Guerrero returning full-time to third, where he played a dozen games last year.

Without an extension in place, the 6-foot-2, 245-pound Guerrero will have to wait to reset a market that previously had been topped by the eight-year, $248 million extension Miguel Cabrera signed just shy of his 31st birthday in 2014.

Teams without long-term first-base solutions beyond 2025 that could target Guerrero, who turns 26 in March, include the Yankees (Paul Goldschmidt is on a one-year deal) and Mets (Alonso can opt out of his two-year contract following the season).