Uneasy calm won’t last long – Israel’s next move could bring even bigger war
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For the first time in almost half a century, Israel is at war during the Jewish day of atonement, Yom Kippur.
The streets are empty, driving is forbidden. Religious observant Jews are at home. Others walk the traffic-free boulevards here in Tel Aviv.
The seaside city is in the eye of the storm in the calm before another. Because while its wars rage to the north and south, another bigger front may soon open.
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In Gaza, Israel has launched a ground offensive in recent days in the same place for the third time.
Hamas has popped up again in the north of the strip and Israeli counterfire has killed scores of civilians, including women and children.
Israel’s critics believe it is trying to clear the entire north of Gaza to make it a closed occupied zone, something its government refutes.
To the north, Israel’s “limited operation” in Lebanon looks more like a long-term invasion with each passing day.
Expanding into the coastal western sector, its forces have now caught UN peacekeepers in their fire – Israelis say mistakenly. They were targeting Hezbollah nestled close to the base of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
France, Spain and Italy have issued stern diplomatic reprimands of what they say they’re convinced was deliberate targeting of international peacekeeping troops.
The sounds of war though have not reached Tel Aviv in the last 24 hours, bar one loud explosion last night. A Hezbollah drone flew into northern Israel and evaded air defences, crashing into an apartment block in the upmarket area of Herzliyya. No one was hurt.
In the military security headquarters of the Kirya in central Tel Aviv, Israelis are planning their next move against their arch enemy, Iran.
Israel’s cabinet met on Thursday but reportedly without a final decision on how to retaliate for Iran’s second direct attack on the country, with 200 ballistic missiles at the start of the month.
On the cards, an Israeli attack on Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons facilities.
Advocates say Israel will never have an opportunity like this but admit it will probably be impossible to destroy completely without American help, which has been ruled out.
Opponents say it could have the opposite effect, accelerating Iran’s ambition to build the bomb.
Other plans include striking Iran’s economy, especially its oil industry.
That will hurt the Iranian people too and could encourage them to rally around their reviled regime – risking a much bigger war.
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Tehran says it would hit back not just at Israel but the gulf states, which could draw in the US which is committed to defend the emirates and their military assets based there.
That would be a very dangerous moment for the region and the world.
The most compelling option may be to strike the regime where it hurts most. To target its military, the hated IRGC and other organs that so brutally crushed nationwide unrest in recent years.
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The Iranian regime has lost all legitimacy in the minds of its people, insist western diplomats.
Hit its barracks, intelligence headquarters and secret police bases, the argument goes, and you will punish both the ayatollahs and the goons who keep them in power and maybe bring the day forward when they are toppled.
Or on this national day of reflection, the Israeli prime minister may have other, more covert options to ponder.
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Israel has heavily penetrated Iran with spies and agents, carrying out numerous assassinations and acts of espionage.
Could there be something more asymmetrical in the works? After all, Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant a few days ago said its retaliation would be “surprising”.
The day of atonement has a few hours left to run. The uneasy calm won’t last long here, Israel’s next move will become clearer soon, and with it, potentially, an even bigger war.
