Optimism around 'bridging' proposal for Gaza ceasefire deal - but there's a key sticking point

Antony Blinken’s announcement, after a day of meetings with the Israeli president, prime minister, and defence minister, that a bridging proposal has been agreed, is an optimistic end to a day that began with serious doubts about the potential ceasefire.

Although the details haven’t been revealed, it concerns the presence of Israeli forces in strategic parts of Gaza in the event of a deal.

Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) remain along the Philidelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt.

This was a valuable smuggling route for Hamas for years, and Netanyahu says he cannot allow Hamas a chance to re-arm if the IDF withdraws.

Israeli officials are insisting that remains their position and so whatever the US workaround is, is intriguing, although it might involve a partial or phased pull-back and security cooperation with Egypt and a third party.

Hamas has repeatedly rejected any continued presence of the Israeli military in Gaza, even reiterating that position to Sky News in recent days.

The US, one of the three mediators in talks, is unlikely to have put forward a proposal without believing it has at least a chance of receiving approval from Hamas, but if the group sticks to its demand for a full Israeli withdrawal then the bridging proposal will quickly collapse.

Speaking from Maryland before boarding Air Force One, President Joe Biden said he still believed a ceasefire deal was possible, but the outgoing president has been more optimistic than most in recent days.

As much as he might will a ceasefire before he leaves the White House, the success of the talks will hinge on strategic reality, not hope.

Blinken, whose previous trips to the region have had mixed success, will now relay this proposal to Egypt and Qatar in the coming days and persuade them to push Hamas into accepting.

Israel has committed to sending its top negotiating team to Cairo for further talks later this week – the first indication of potential success will be if Hamas agrees to take part this time.