Trump assassination attempt: The clenched fist may have defined the day – but will it determine the election’s outcome?

Courage, defiance, or a reckless play for the cameras even in the heights of danger.

However it’s viewed, that footage of Donald Trump refusing to leave the stage before showing supporters a clenched fist will now help define his campaign for re-election.

It is extraordinary viewing. The former president has just been shot, through his ear, and his Secret Service close protection detail is begging him to move.

Shooting latest: Trump seen for first time since attempted assassination

“Let me get my shoes on,” he says repeatedly, as they say, “we’ve got to move you to the car”.

His agents are trained to put their bodies between their charge and more potential bullets and were doing exactly that.

But Donald Trump was not moving with them to safety. “Wait, wait, wait, wait,” he insists repeatedly.

Not until he knew cameras had a clear shot of him and his gesture of defiance. Only then does he allow himself to be rushed away.

There are already comparisons with Ronald Reagan, the last president to survive being shot in 1981.

“Honey I forgot to duck,” he joked to his wife Nancy. To his surgeons before emergency surgery: “Please tell me you’re all Republicans.” Reagan was later re-elected.

Will this moment and Trump’s response exalt him in the eyes of voters in a similar way? And of course we are asking, will it help Trump or hinder him in his effort to become president again?

Read more:
What we know so far about the gunman
‘Pop pop pop’ – Witnesses describe moment of shooting
‘Security failure’ allowed gunman to open fire, experts say

American politics can be gladiatorial. Donald Trump’s supporters will say he showed true grit.

In America it’s not about being knocked down they say, it’s how you get back up.

He found the courage to stand his ground and project courage, admirers will argue, comparing all that unfavourably to his rival.

On the other hand critics may accuse him of endangering his guards for precious seconds while he tried to seize a photo opportunity in the midst of all the danger.

But the key question will be what impact this has on the undecideds, those voters whose support he needs to secure to win back the White House.

Will they be reassured by his apparent resilience or see last night’s attack as a portent of things to come in America?

There was already widespread fear of violence and conflict under a second Trump term.

Will swing voters be won over by Trump’s clenched fist or see this as a glimpse of the future: a polarising president who has undoubtedly stoked division and is now reaping the whirlwind?

There have already been plenty of predictions but in reality it is too soon to say.

This extraordinary moment could play several ways. And we should also note that for all the drama surrounding these events, political violence in America is as old as its democracy.

Of equal importance will be how this affects Trump the candidate, Trump the campaigner and Trump the man?

Assassination attempts leave their mark as biographers of other survivors from Ronald Reagan to Margaret Thatcher relate.

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The Donald Trump of 2024 has been far more disciplined than the campaigner of eight years ago.

That has helped reassure voters too, avoiding the tumultuous shenanigans of that first campaign and term in office that followed.

Could this attempt on his life upend that relative composure? How will it affect him emotionally and psychologically? That will also help determine how this turns out politically.