Oil prices fall to snap four-week winning streak as rally stalls out

Crude oil futures fell on Friday, snapping a four-week winning streak as the recent rally lost momentum. 

Prices rose earlier in the session after two days of gains, as June consumer inflation eased to around its lowest level in more than three years, bolstering hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and stimulate demand.

But futures ultimately lost momentum later in the day after a measure of wholesale prices rose 0.2% in June, slightly higher than the 0.1% expected by economists.

U.S. crude oil posted a loss of 1.14% for the week while Brent fell by 1.74%. 

Here are today’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate August contract: $82.21 per barrel, down 41 cents, or 0.5%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained 14.7%.
• Brent September contract: $85.03 per barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.43%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 10.4%.
• RBOB Gasoline August contract: $2.51 per gallon, little changed. Year to date, gasoline is up 19.6%.
• Natural Gas August contract: $2.33 per thousand cubic feet, up 6 cents, 2.69%. Year to date, gas is down 7.3%.

Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodity strategy, said the pullback was overdue. Investors have trimmed their positions, resetting Brent to a fair value of $84 for July and clearing the way for the bank’s September target of $90 per barrel, she told clients in a Thursday note.

“The view is underpinned by our expectations that both crude and liquids balances will tighten in the summer months, leading to significant stock draws,” Kaneva wrote.

U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell for the week ended July 5, in a sign that summer fuel demand may be finding some life. OPEC and the International Energy Agency, however, have sent conflicting signals again on where demand is trending this year.

The cartel of producers is bullish, seeing demand increasing by 2.2 million barrels per day this year on solid economic growth. The bloc of largely Western states, on the other hand, sees demand growing just under 1 million bpd as the global economy softens, particularly in China.

Kaneva said mixed economic signals from China are raising questions about demand growth in the world’s second-largest economy. JPMorgan sees a global oil demand gain of 1.4 million bpd this year.

While Gulf Coast oil infrastructure largely avoided damage from Hurricane Beryl, weather forecasts at Colorado State University are expecting an “extremely” active storm season this year.