Truce is an inflection point in Gaza conflict – but could Hamas be on the verge of gaining the initiative?

The temporary truce between Israel and Hamas is an inflection point in the Gaza conflict.

Although Hamas is no match militarily for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), is it on the verge of gaining the initiative?

Hostage negotiations appear to have borne fruit. The truce could see the release of 10 Israeli hostages a day, subject to agreement.

Since the release of hostages was stated as a core objective of Israel, at face value this is a positive step for the IDF campaign.

The Israeli military operation to destroy Hamas and liberate hostages is ongoing, but despite more than 13,000 Palestinian deaths and a growing humanitarian crisis, those objectives have yet to be achieved.

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However, despite the public rhetoric, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have known that the primary reason Hamas seized hostages in the first place was to enable them – at some stage – to seize the initiative.

Therefore, despite growing domestic and international concern over the fate of the hostages, Netanyahu knew he had a diminishing window of opportunity to “solve the Hamas problem” – his primary objective – and his military has responded accordingly with a high-intensity kinetic air and ground offensive.

In addition to Israeli citizens and soldiers, Hamas also seized several foreign nationals as hostages, including a number of US citizens.

As Israel’s primary ally, the US has been applying intense pressure to secure their release and a month ago two US hostages were the first captives released by Hamas.

This symbolic act demonstrated that the fate of hostages was negotiable and as the Israeli military offensive failed to liberate hostages, pressure has been mounting on Netanyahu to negotiate with Hamas.

Although both Hamas and Israel want to see the hostage release process proceed, they have very different motivations.

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Israel knows that every day of a truce will be exploited by Hamas to focus attention on the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, the humanitarian crisis and the devastation that probably still conceals more bodies, making it more and more difficult for Netanyahu to re-start the military operation.

Hamas know they only have to avoid “destruction” and retain a handful of hostages, and Israel will have been denied the victory they seek.

After 50 hostages are released there is the potential for 10 further hostages to be released each day if the truce can be extended.

This will be very difficult for Israel to resist, particularly given the emotional torment facing the families of those yet to be released.

Although Netanyahu has made clear the war will continue for “one to two months” after the truce has concluded, the second phase of the IDF operation is expected to be focused on southern Gaza.

Even Israeli officials admit this will involve far more casualties – both military and civilian – than phase one in the north.

Hamas will retain some hostages, it will not have been destroyed, and military action might yet fail to deliver.

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Meanwhile, the widespread sympathy for Israel’s plight immediately following the Hamas atrocities is fast being eroded.

The release of hostages provides a unique opportunity for both sides to draw breath and review next steps.

There remains no credible military solution to the political issues, so perhaps this temporary truce provides a rare opportunity to explore alternative options.

“While seeking revenge, dig two graves – one for yourself” – Douglas Horton