Connelly’s ‘Ifs List’: How each CFP contender can win it all

We always think we know what’s coming at this point in the offseason. We know who’s going to be the preseason No. 1 (in this case, two-time defending national champion Georgia), and we know which blue bloods are particularly loaded.

We don’t know everything, though. For starters, a preseason No. 1 team hasn’t actually won the title in five years, so we probably shouldn’t consider Georgia an absolute slam dunk. For another thing, every major contender always heads into the season with questions we don’t know they’ll answer.

This is my annual “Ifs List” piece — an attempt to see how many “ifs” it takes me to turn a team into a genuine national title contender. The favorites don’t require many; a few others might have more than you think.

According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no national champion over the last 22 seasons has begun the season with title odds worse than +5,000, and only three started worse than +1,900 (LSU was +4,000 in 2003, Auburn +5,000 in 2010, Ohio State +4,000 in 2014). Below are the 17 teams with national title odds of +5,000 or better per Caesars Sportsbook. They are sorted by the number of “ifs” that need to break their way to make them champs. As always, we’re not going to worry about obstacles like injuries to stars, which could strike any team at any time. Those concerns are obvious and universal.

(Note: SP+ rankings listed below reference the updated numbers mentioned in this recent piece. You can find the complete set of ratings here.)