From Ohio State to TCU: The 17 teams that can make the College Football Playoff
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Even Alabama coach Nick Saban will concede that right now, Georgia is at the top of college football. That doesn’t mean Alabama can’t change that narrative. Or Tennessee. Or LSU. Or Ohio State.
“Georgia has won two national championships in a row, so I’d say for the moment they are the best,” Saban told ESPN this spring. “They’ve proven on the field that they are the best for the last two years. But success is not a continuum for us. It’s not a continuum for anyone.”
According to the College Football Power Index, nobody has a better chance to make the College Football Playoff — and win it — than Ohio State. Georgia is right behind the Buckeyes, but they’re hardly alone, as there are 17 teams with at least a 1% chance of making the CFP this fall. Of those 17 teams, 11 are given at least a 1% chance to win the national title. The sport only has a handful of truly elite teams, but the beauty lies in its ability to surprise us. Think TCU last year. Or Cincinnati the year before. Who could that be in 2023?
While the FPI percentages generated below come from a formula derived by ESPN Analytics, the selection committee brings a human element to the process, so we factor that in to determine how well the percentages line up with what could happen in the room. We’ve also noted odds from Las Vegas courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. The teams are ranked in order of the best chance to reach the playoff, according to FPI (through July 31).
Ohio State
Last year’s record: 11-2
FPI projection: Make playoff: 82.2% | Win national title: 36.7%
Caesars Sportsbook odds to make playoff: +105
Agree or disagree with FPI: Somewhat agree. This team is definitely CFP material, but it shouldn’t be given a higher chance than Michigan — at least not yet — considering the Wolverines have a veteran starting quarterback returning from a CFP team that beat the Buckeyes the past two seasons. Ohio State’s defense will play better and smarter in the second season under coordinator Jim Knowles, the roster is still oozing NFL draft talent on both sides, and there is proven CFP experience.
