Caleb Williams over Trevor Lawrence? We stacked recent first-round NFL QBs against top 2024 prospects

We’ve already heard a lot about the 2024 NFL draft‘s talented quarterback duo at the top of the class: USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye. They are both in serious contention to go No. 1 overall next April, and Williams is getting “generational talent” buzz before the 2023 college football season even kicks off. But how do they stack up as prospects against other top-tier signal-callers?

To get a sense of the best quarterback prospects of the past five years, we stacked the 16 passers who were taken in Round 1 over 2019-2023. That conversation covers the likes of Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Kyler Murray. Then we dropped Williams and Maye — the only two first-round graded QBs in my evaluations right now — into the mix and ranked them against those recent Day 1 selections.

We polled NFL scouts, decision-makers and analysts to help build the list, and pre-draft grades were the only consideration here. What each quarterback has done as a pro isn’t factored in at all, and over- or underperforming in the NFL relative to draft stock doesn’t matter. We’re just piling all 18 quarterbacks together as though they were all in the same draft class. So who is No. 1 on the list as the top quarterback prospect going back to 2019? You might be surprised …

Jump to top QB from each class:
2019 | 2020 | 2021
2022 | 2023

Where top 2024 guys rank:
Williams | Maye