Treat everything said about the Russian drone attack with scepticism
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It is not the first time drones have attacked Moscow. And it may not be the most significant.
The drone attack on the Kremlin was more significant in terms of the target.
Two drones were used then and so far Sky News cannot say for sure that more than two drones were used in today’s attack – even if different Russian sources claim numbers ranging from eight to 25 to 32.
And it is far from clear who was responsible. Was it Russia attacking its own capital? Sounds mad, but perfectly plausible. Was it a disaffected Russian faction? Also possible. Or Ukrainians? Surely the most likely culprits? Not necessarily.
Drone experts will be spending the day trying to identify the UAVs used, poring over fuselage silhouettes. That will help attribute blame but not definitively.
If Western drone spotters can identify Ukrainian designs, Russians can copy them, if they really want to go to such lengths to create a false flag incident.
More useful might be working out who has to gain most.
For Russia faking a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow helps alienate Western support for Kyiv.
Ukraine is meant to have given cast-iron assurances it would not launch attacks on Russia itself.
It also helps scare its own population, galvanising support against the enemy.
If that sounds far fetched, remember that a series of Moscow apartment bombings in 1990 that killed more than 300 and were used as the pretext for the Chechen war that secured the rise of Vladimir Putin, are now thought to have been the work of Russia’s FSB spy agency.
It also gives the Russians justification for their relentless barbaric attacks on Kyiv as they can now claim Ukrainians are at it too.
A rogue Russian faction perhaps? Also possible. The drones have come down in an area where some of the country’s elites live and makes the Putin regime look weak.
Yevgheny Prigozhin, who heads the Wagner mercenary group, has already spoken out to condemn the government for leaving the capital exposed.
Ukraine has less to gain from this episode.
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It plays into the hands of enemies in the West, especially those in America who want to turn off the spigot of US military help.
The Ukrainians can’t keep their word, they will say, or can’t control themselves.
It weakens Kyiv’s moral position too. For a year-and-a-half it has been condemning Russia for its wilful arbitrary assault on civilian buildings.
Now it appears to be doing the same thing.
Sure Ukrainians have been attacking civilian infrastructure deep into Russia for months now, from oil refineries to depots.
But residential buildings in the capital is of a different order and out of character. If Ukraine is doing this, it is only explained as part of the prelude to the long-awaited counteroffensive.
Part of a pattern, to unnerve the enemy, along with those strange cross-border raids in Belgorod and Bryansk.
Keep the enemy on its toes, probe its weaknesses, show that no one is safe with the big push only days away.
But that only holds water if that offensive really is just around the corner.
We have been saying so for days – weeks now – and no sign yet of Ukraine’s much-vaunted counterattack.
Until that happens and a convincing narrative emerges, treat everything that happens in this war and everything that is said about it with scepticism.
No one knows anything for sure.
