McShay’s early 2024 NFL mock draft: Where could top prospects, three QBs land in Round 1?

Yes, we’re already looking at the 2024 NFL draft class. The top prospects of the 2023 class haven’t even stepped on an NFL field yet, but let’s go ahead and do a way, way-too-early projection of every first-round pick for next year.

We watched three quarterbacks get picked in the top four spots in Kansas City, Missouri, last week, and we could see QBs high on the board again next April in Detroit. The class is currently headlined by Caleb Williams, the Heisman Trophy winner out of USC, and a handful of other signal-callers have a chance to be Day 1 selections. I also see some really good pass-catcher, edge rusher, cornerback and offensive tackle prospects.

Now, this is an extremely early prediction. I’ve watched only limited tape on next year’s prospects, and most of this is based on early talk around the league and what I’ve seen from the 2024-eligible players while digging in on 2023 tape. There’s a reason I call it the “way-too-early” mock. My 2023 edition had 14 players in it who ended up being first-rounders, including three correctly pegged to the top five — but I also had Eli Ricks and Emil Ekiyor Jr., who went undrafted, and three guys who returned to school in there. Take it for what it is; we still have an entire college season and a long pre-draft process ahead. A lot will change.

There is also the matter of the draft order. Let’s get this out of the way: I didn’t make it. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of it to ensure seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. It ultimately put Arizona at the top of the board with pick Nos. 1 and 2. But would the Cardinals hang onto both selections?

Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks (Houston, Carolina, Cleveland and conditionally the N.Y. Jets) are shown below as well.