MLB Awards Week: Verlander, Alcantara win Cy Young unanimously, picks and analysis for MVP
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by 0 With the World Series in our rearview mirror — though the champion Astros are surely still reveling in their victory — the 2022 season is all but done, with one final piece left: awards!
The winners of MLB’s four major end-of-season awards — Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player — are being announced starting at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network each day this week.
On Monday, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez took home American League Rookie of the Year honors, while Atlanta’s Michael Harris II won in the National League. On Tuesday, Cleveland’s Terry Francona was named AL Manager of the Year, and the Mets’ Buck Showalter won for the NL. On Wednesday, 39-year-old Justin Verlander secured his third career Cy Young by winning the AL honors, while Sandy Alcantara made Marlins franchise history in the NL with his victory — marking the first time since 1968 that the Cy Young winners were each unanimous choices.
Unlike last year, when none of the MVP candidates reached the postseason, five of this year’s six finalists made the playoffs — with last year’s American League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, once again left out of October. Of the six, just one appeared in the Fall Classic (and won) — Yordan Alvarez. The AL’s MVP race is, unsurprisingly, led by none other than Aaron Judge, while the National League’s race features two teammates — Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado — vying for the honors.
We have everything you need to know for awards week — previewing each award in addition to our ESPN MLB experts’ predictions for who should take home the hardware. Be sure to check back throughout the week as this page is updated with results and analysis from Bradford Doolittle as each award is handed out.
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Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL
American League Cy Young
Winner: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Final tally: Verlander 210 (30 first-place votes); Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox 97; Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays 87; Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels 82; Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays 10; Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians 5; Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees 3; Gerrit Cole, Yankees 1; Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays 1.
Experts’ picks: Verlander (12 votes), Cease (1)
Doolittle’s take: Justin Verlander once seemed all but indestructible, maintaining every bit of his dominance as he advanced into his late 30s. Then, after one fateful start in the stunted 2020 season, Verlander proved to be human. Tommy John surgery, rehab and that lone outing over a two-season span followed. Time comes for us all and it had been a great run. Verlander would return, but dominant Verlander?
Yep. Still here — and he’s the fourth oldest player to win a Cy Young in MLB history. All Verlander did in his return from his long layoff was lead the AL in wins, ERA, ERA+, WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings. Just like that, it’s all back on the table — Verlander’s long-stated desire to pitch into his mid-40s, his quest to win 300 games, one more monster contract, all of it.
My one qualm with the voting came before Wednesday’s results were even announced, which is that I thought Ohtani should have been a finalist and Verlander’s top competitor for the award. Even if that had happened, I would still have leaned towards Verlander. As for Cease and Manoah — both young, emergent aces — they’ll have plenty of more shots at this honor.
I am a little shocked that it was unanimous. While I thought Verlander should win, the separation between him, Cease and Manoah wasn’t overwhelming. It’s a great achievement though and amazing that we have two unanimous Cy Youngs in one season.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Verlander (148)
2. Ohtani (146)
3. Cease (141)
4. Manoah (139)
5. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers (132)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference).
Cy Young must-reads:
The fall of the starting pitcher — and one young ace who signifies hope for the future
From Tommy John to Cy Young form at 39? Inside Justin Verlander’s unprecedented return to dominance
National League Cy Young
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Goldschmidt (6 votes), Machado (4), Arenado (3)
What to know: Goldschmidt had been the heavy favorite after hitting .404/.471/.817 with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in May and remaining hot … at least until September, when he finally slumped, hitting .245 with two home runs. By then, however, the Cardinals were cruising to a division title and the Goldschmidt MVP storyline seemed etched in stone. But as our expert picks suggest, maybe it isn’t such a sure thing. Arenado (7.9) actually topped Goldschmidt (7.8) in bWAR, although the difference there is insignificant. Machado (7.4), meanwhile, led in FanGraphs WAR over Arenado’s 7.3 and Goldschmidt’s 7.1.
Goldschmidt was the best hitter in the NL, finishing at .317/.404/.578 with 35 home runs and 115 RBIs, so support for Arenado and Machado centers around the value their defense brings and those WAR totals that ended up pretty even. Goldschmidt led the NL in win probability added (Machado was second) while Arenado wasn’t in the top 10, but some of the other clutch numbers favor Arenado: He had a .988 OPS in high-leverage situations (Goldschmidt was at .895) and .864 in “late and close” situations (Goldschmidt was at .789).
MVP voters have certainly focused on a player’s WAR more and more over the past decade, so that should make this a split vote, but in a close race, it usually seems to go to the best hitter and that’s Goldschmidt. He has had two runner-up MVP finishes and one third place, but at 34 years old, I think he finally wins. — Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
‘It’s my prime, baby’: Why Manny Machado is the best he’s ever been at age 30
American League MVP
Finalists:
Experts’ picks: Judge (12 votes), Ohtani (1)
What to know: You might have heard about this one. Ohtani went 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts as a pitcher. As mentioned above, his 6.2 pitching bWAR was second in the AL and he’ll probably finish fourth in the Cy Young voting. As a hitter, he hit .273/.356/.519 with 34 home runs and 95 RBIs, good enough for the fifth-highest OPS in the AL. So you have a top-five pitcher and a top-five hitter. That is a superhero season.
And somehow not epic enough. Judge’s season was also historic: 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, 133 runs, .425 OBP, .686 slugging. He led the AL in all those categories, most in dominant fashion, doing it in a season when offense was at its lowest levels since 2015. It was the best offensive season since peak Barry Bonds, and if you don’t want to include Bonds, you have to go back to Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams in the 1950s. Judge finished with 10.6 bWAR compared to Ohtani’s pitching-plus-hitting total of 9.6. Of course, the way WAR is constructed, it gives Ohtani a positional penalty, since he was a DH. Maybe you can argue that isn’t fair, since Ohtani obviously plays another position — pitcher.
Still, we can add up the numbers and leave position out of this: Ohtani produced an estimated 31 runs more than an average hitter and saved 40 runs compared to an average pitcher, for a combined total of 71 runs; Judge produced an estimated 80 runs more than average hitter. That’s how good he was at the plate: Better than the combined value of Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter. And that’s why Judge’s MVP award will be a deserving honor. — Schoenfield
MVP must-reads:
The road to 62: How Aaron Judge made home run history in 2022
Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani: How to compare two radically different MVP contenders
‘This guy, he’s different’: What it’s like to watch Yordan Alvarez up close
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Terry Francona, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Francona 112 (17 first-place votes); Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles, 79 (9); Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners 43 (1); Dusty Baker, Houston Astros 31 (3); Aaron Boone, New York Yankees 4; Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays 1
Experts’ picks: Hyde (6 votes), Francona (6), Baker (1)
Doolittle’s take: Talk about a tough choice. You have the skipper of the out-of-nowhere miracle team (Hyde) against the guy who led baseball’s youngest team to the ALDS (Francona) and the guy who has turned winning one-run games into an art form (Servais).
It would have been hard to complain about any of the three finalists winning it, so I certainly won’t complain about Francona, who might have done the best work of a Hall of Fame managerial career in 2022.
It’s not just that the Guardians were the youngest team in baseball, which they were. They just kept getting younger as the season went along as the team cut bait with veterans like Franmil Reyes while continuing to add young players from the system.
The ability to install rookies and win with them has long been a coveted manager trait and few skippers have done it as well as Francona did in 2022. Add to that the fact that Francona also guided an elite bullpen and was part of the Go-Go Guardians developing a style of baseball that relied on speed, defense and contact hitting — some that run counter to trends in the current game — and it was a masterpiece.
So no complaints, but neither would there have been had Hyde or Servais come out on top.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Hyde (13.42)
2. Francona (9.70)
3. Baker (6.45)
4. Servais (4.85)
5. Cash (minus-0.61)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
MOY must-reads:
How the Guardians turned the AL Central race into a one-team sprint
How the Orioles — yes, the Baltimore Orioles — became the hottest team in MLB
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Buck Showalter, New York Mets
Final tally: Showalter 77 (8); Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers 57 (8); Brian Snitker, Atlanta Braves 55 (7); Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals 44 (5); Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies 36 (2); Bob Melvin, San Diego Padres 1.
Experts’ picks: Showalter (6 votes), Snitker (5), Roberts (1), Thomson (1)
Doolittle’s take: The National League didn’t have much in the way of Cinderella-esque emergent teams like the Orioles and Mariners in the American League, so we ended up with a race between skippers from preseason favorites.
My guy would have been Marmol, who faced a major challenge in balancing the need to win now with the unusual narrative aspects of the Cardinals’ year and ended up leading the Redbirds to a storybook regular season. St. Louis didn’t win it all, but no one went away unhappy with the way the campaign played out for Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina and, most of all, Albert Pujols. Alas, Marmol wasn’t a finalist in the balloting.
That aside, of the three finalists, all leaders of high-powered, preseason favorites, I thought Showalter stood out even if the Mets faded toward the end of the season. Yes, the Mets had a massive payroll but the task of meshing so many veteran, high-salaried stars into a cohesive roster is not an easy one and Showalter was the perfect guy for the job. He played a big part in bringing it all into focus.
Beyond his work in unifying the clubhouse, Showalter also faced challenges with a star-laden pitching staff. Yes, the rotation was headed by generational stars Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but those two combined for 209 innings, or around one rotation slot in terms of workload. Yes, the Mets had the game’s best reliever in Edwin Diaz but not only did Showalter help navigate an uncertain middle relief staff to get him the ball with the lead, but he avoided overusing Diaz, which had to be a temptation.
In a time when managers are too often viewed as glorified media relations personnel and appendages of the front office, we saw a lot of evidence in 2022 that traditional managerial acuity still matters. Few typified that reality more than Showalter.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Showalter (7.72)
2. Marmol (5.13)
3. Snitker (4.09)
4. Roberts (3.01)
5. Lovullo (1.49)
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