The NHL trade deadline is a chance for teams to look deeply into their souls — or, perhaps, into their internal budgets — to discover who they are now and what they want to become in the future.
That’s easier said than done. Sure, there are some teams that know they’re in the midst of a full-on Stanley Cup championship push and will add talent accordingly, just like there are teams that are looking to trade away veterans and take on other teams’ cap headaches in order to collect picks and prospects.
But there are other teams that are a little less certain about their deadline approach. Maybe they’re distracted by the faint heartbeat of their playoff chances. Maybe they have new leadership that’s trying to figure out which players to keep and which to jettison. Maybe they have a group of pending free agents that other teams covet but they hope to retain — and what happens if they can’t?
Here are eight NHL teams at the crossroads as the 2022 trade deadline is a week away.
Deadline links: Deadline tracker: Latest deals | Tiers: Best available at each position (ESPN+) | Kaplan: Trade notes (ESPN+)
Current status: The Ducks are 27-25-10 through 62 games for 64 points. According to Five Thirty Eight’s projections, Anaheim has a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Money Puck gives Anaheim a 1.1% chance of finishing in the final wild card spot.
At the crossroads: The Ducks’ surprising run as a playoff contender could be waning, but it’s clear the future is bright thanks to breakout seasons from forwards Troy Terry and rookie Trevor Zegras, and a solid first year from defenseman Jamie Drysdale. They have a new general manager in Pat Verbeek, who has several big questions to answer ahead of the trade deadline regarding veteran players nearing free agency.
Players to watch: Defenseman Hampus Lindholm ($5,205,556 AAV) is one of the most coveted players at the deadline. He plays the left side and has no trade protection. He plays 22:38 per night on average, would be an asset to any contender’s blue line and would net a significant return for the Ducks. They want to re-sign him, but term has been a point of debate.
Fellow blueliner Josh Manson ($4.1 million AAV) is two years older but has a lower cap hit than Lindholm. He’s drawn a ton of interest, too, as a pending UFA but does have some trade protection. Conventional wisdom is that Manson’s future is tied to that of Lindholm’s with the Ducks.
Meanwhile, there’s seemingly endless speculation over winger Rickard Rakell ($3,789,444 AAV), who is a pending UFA. He has 28 points in 51 games this season and can play both wings.
Verbeek reportedly told a group of Ducks season-ticket holders that he wouldn’t allow the free agents to walk away for nothing. Anaheim will be active; how active is a matter of who decides to re-up before the deadline.
Current status: The Stars have a record of 32-22-3 (67 points) in 57 games, which is the fewest games played in the Western Conference. Five Thirty Eight gives them a 70% chance of making the playoffs, while Money Puck gives them a 30.4% probability that they’ll be the first wild-card team.
At the crossroads: Before the season, center Tyler Seguin said there was “a certain finality” to this incarnation of the Stars. “All the guys on our team know in the back of our minds that we got guys whose contracts are coming up,” he said. “We all know it’s a salary cap world, and we’d like to keep everybody, and I’m sure we’re going to try. But we also know this is a business. It is what it is.”
Dallas showed in the 2020 playoffs how pesky and tough it can be in the postseason, battling through the Edmonton bubble gauntlet before losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final. But are the Stars’ current odds of making the 2022 playoffs good enough not to maximize the return on some of their pending free agents?
Players to watch: The Stars made news on Friday when they took center Joe Pavelski off the trade board with a one-year, $5.5-million extension for 2022-23. His family loves the area, and the Stars value the 37-year-old’s leadership. But that doesn’t mean other UFAs will be back next season.
Defenseman John Klingberg ($4.25 million AAV) could be a great fit for a dozen teams at the trade deadline. Goalie Braden Holtby ($2 million AAV) is a better solution in goal than most of what’s available. Winger Alex Radulov ($6.25 million AAV) is struggling through a horrible regular season with three goals in 50 games, but he’s a well-liked player within the team.
In this group, Klingberg is the key. Last season, the Stars held onto defenseman Jamie Oleksiak, with GM Jim Nill saying, “We’re in a real battle for our playoff lives right now, and he’s a big part of that.” He left for the Seattle Kraken and the Stars ended up with nothing to show for it. Reports over the weekend indicated that Klingberg and the Stars could end up with an extension here instead.
Current status: After defeating Tampa Bay on Saturday, Edmonton had a record of 32-23-4 (68 points) in 59 games and held the third seed in the Pacific Division. Five Thirty Eight gives the Oilers a 65% probability to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Money Puck gives Edmonton a 34.7% chance of finishing third in the division.
At the crossroads: The Oilers status as a playoff contender changes weekly. A few losses and they’re a feckless franchise that’s floating away from the playoff bubble. Connor McDavid has a couple of multi-point games, they beat two Eastern Conference playoff teams at home and suddenly it’s back on GM Ken Holland to capitalize on that with an aggressive trade deadline push.
There are a couple of factors at play here. The Oilers are one of those teams that are going to get a boost when injured players return at the end of the month, with forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi coming back. But if the aim is gathering reinforcements from other teams — in particular, and most desperately, a goaltender — Holland has stated on multiple occasions that he’s not looking to move first-round picks or top prospects like defenseman Philip Broberg for temporary help. We don’t think that’s just posturing.
Players to watch: If the Oilers do anything, it will have to involve money being sent out. Kyle Turris ($1.65 million AAV) is out with an upper body injury but has an expiring contract. Goalie Mikko Koskinen ($4.5 million AAV) is also a pending UFA and has a 15-team no-trade list. The Oilers would obviously prefer to keep him and upgrade Mike Smith, but there’s absolutely no market for the latter. That said, Koskinen has had an uptick in quality starts recently.
Then there’s pending UFA forward Josh Archibald ($1.5 million AAV), who recently returned to the lineup after missing most of the season due to post-COVID myocarditis. Complicating his status is that Archibald remains unvaccinated. According to the Edmonton Sun, he’s prohibited from boarding a plane in Canada, “so his comeback will be limited to home games in Edmonton and road games in Calgary until further notice.”
Current status: The Kings have a 33-20-8 record in 61 games for 74 points, and are second in the Pacific Division. Five Thirty Eight gives Los Angeles a 85% chance of making the playoffs. Money Puck believes there’s a 58.6% probability the Kings finish second in the division.
At the crossroads: The Kings have long-term and short-term considerations at the trade deadline.
They’ve been playoff contenders for the entirety of the season, and their underlying numbers underscore that hasn’t been a fluke. But Los Angeles has been absolutely devoured by the injury bug this month: Star defenseman Drew Doughty and forward Dustin Brown were both placed on injured reserve this weekend. Brown’s upper body injury will keep him out “for an extended period,” per coach Todd McLellan. They join forwards Viktor Arvidsson and Brendan Lemieux and defenseman Mikey Anderson as recent additions to injured reserve.
How do these injuries impact GM Rob Blakes’s deadline plans? The long-term consideration concerns how Blake sees the maturation of this team. His veterans have stepped up to make them a contender this season, including the veterans he acquired in the last year who fit McLellan’s system and philosophy well. Would he use the team’s considerable prospect depth to bring in an impact forward or defenseman?
One name to keep in mind: Jakob Chychrun. The Kings have been sniffing around him for some time. He’s signed through 2025 with a glorious cap hit ($4.6 million AAV). As I reported this week, the Arizona Coyotes’ ask for the 23-year-old defenseman has been extraordinarily high — better than a first and two top prospects. But he’s just the kind of player Blake and the Kings should be using their treasure trove to acquire.
Players to watch: The Kings have a bevy of prospects that have yet to make their mark in the NHL and a few — Gabriel Vilardi, a pending restricted free agent, and Arthur Kaliyev among them — that graduated to the main roster. Among their unrestricted free agents are winger Andreas Athanasiou ($2.7 million AAV), who is currently on IR, and defenseman Olli Maatta ($3,333,225 AAV). But if Blake believes the injured players will return soon enough to keep the Kings pushing to the playoffs, one assumes they won’t move either unless it’s necessary for a money-in/money-out move.
Current status: The Islanders have a 24-24-8 record in 56 games for 56 points. Five Thirty Eight gives them a 2% of making the playoffs, while Money Puck gives them a 3.6% probability of finishing in the final Eastern Conference wild card spot.
At the crossroads: It’s been a disastrous year for the Islanders, who followed back-to-back trips to the conference finals with what’s assuredly going to be a trip to the draft lottery. In recent interviews, GM Lou Lamoriello has referenced extenuating circumstances this season — like COVID-19 interruptions — for the team’s lack of success, as well as unexpectedly underwhelming performances from previous reliable veteran players. He’s also voiced support for the team’s core. But it’s Lou. We’ve been trying to figure out where he’s zigging for 30 years, and then he zags.
Players to watch: Semyon Varlamov ($5 million AAV) would seem to be the player with the most value, given the shallowness of the goalie market at the deadline and the fact this is now Ilya Sorokin’s team. He’s due to make $4 million next season, his last before unrestricted free agency. But Varlamov has a no-trade clause that covers half the league.
The Islanders also have a collection of veteran players with expiring contracts. Defensemen Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene both carry just a $750,000 cap hit, but are likely only to move if they choose to move. The same could be said for Lamoirello favorite Zach Parise. The pending UFA that could move is forward Cal Clutterbuck, who would be a great addition to any contender seeking a chaos-making forechecker down in their lineup.
One name that keeps coming up is defenseman Scott Mayfield, mostly for his terrific contract ($1.45 million through 2023). But the Islanders may do better to have him around next season than flip him at the deadline.
Current status: With their victory over Carolina on Sunday, the Penguins are now 36-15-9 (81 points) in 60 games. Five Thirty Eight gives them a better than 99% to make the playoffs and Money Puck believes there’s a 66.5% chance that Pittsburgh places second in the Metro Division.
At the crossroads: No team’s “window to win” has been as heavily scrutinized than that the of the Penguins. That’s not only due to the advancing age of its core of players, but their contract status as well: Center Evgeni Malkin (35), defenseman Kris Letang (34) and winger Bryan Rust (29) are all pending unrestricted free agents. Does GM Ron Hextall mortgage a first-round pick or any of the Penguins’ few prospects to go “all-in” for a playoff push? Or does he feel good about where they are right now, a sentiment he’s voiced publicly in the last few weeks?
Players to watch: The market is going to dictate what Hextall ends up doing. In particular, if the kind of power forward the Penguins lack, but Hextall covets, becomes available. But if Pittsburgh makes a trade, it’s almost assuredly a “money in, money out” deal.
The most likely “money out” candidate is forward Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2 million), a pending RFA who recently had a 13-game scoreless streak and saw his ice time cut accordingly. There’s also been speculation that former GM Jim Rutherford and assistant GM Patrik Allvin — now both with Vancouver — might seek to acquire 24-year-old defenseman John Marino, whom he signed to a six-year deal worth $4.4 million against the cap in Jan. 2021.
Current status: The Canucks have a 29-24-7 record in 60 games, good for 65 points. They’re just outside the wild card and third spot in the Pacific Division. Five Thirty Eight gives them a 25% chance of making the playoffs, while Money Puck says they have an 8.9% chance of placing third in the division.
At the crossroads: President of hockey operations Jim Rutherford and GM Patrik Allvin were hired in-season to help turn the Canucks into Stanley Cup contenders. Their work will really start at the trade deadline, where Vancouver has a buffet of interesting selections that other teams are eyeing. But there’s another factor in play: The Canucks could very well end up being a playoff team under coach Bruce Boudreau, which obviously impacts short-term plans and adds some noise around long-term ones.
Players to watch: Forward J.T. Miller ($5.25 million) is one of the most coveted players at the trade deadline, and with good reason. He has 69 points in 57 games. He can play all three forward spots and anywhere in the lineup. His north-south offensive game is perfect for tightly played postseason hockey. Again, coveted doesn’t mean available: Trading Miller is antithetical to continuing a playoff push. He’ll still have a ton of value as a summer trade, if it becomes clear he might not re-sign with Vancouver when he hits free agency in 2023.
Winger Brock Boeser ($5.875 million) is a pending restricted free agent, and a more pressing matter. He’s due a $7.5-million qualifying offer this summer. Boeser has 17 goals and 17 assists in 53 games. He’s just 24 years old, but there’s been a creeping sense that he’s better as a trade chip than as someone to sign long term to significant dollars.
One name that popped up recently via insider Nick Kypreos was defenseman Tyler Myers, who is signed through 2024 with a $6 million cap hit and plays 22:17 per game on average. That would be one of those “roster reshaping” moves from the new leadership.
The team has a few pending unrestricted free agents. Forward Alex Chiasson ($750,000 AAV) could be a depth pickup for another team. Goalie Jaroslav Halak ($1.5 million) would have plenty of suitors but has a full no-move clause. The most likely to move: Forward Tyler Motte ($1.225 AAV), whose game would benefit several contenders. But there’s still a chance the Canucks retain him beyond this season.
Current status: The Jets have a 27-23-10 record for 64 points in 60 games, lingering four points out of the final wild card spot in the West. Five Thirty Eight gives the Jets a 12% chance of making the playoffs, while Money Puck gives them a 5.4% probability of finishing it the final wild card spot.
At the crossroads: GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has a real conundrum on his hands. The Jets are teetering on the brink, but they’re not out of the playoff race. The majority of their games for the rest of the season are at home, where they’re seventh in offense, compared to 25th on the road. Sure, it may all just lead to a first-round cameo appearance against the Colorado Avalanche, but one never knows.
Players to watch: There’s pressure on Cheveldayoff to get a return on his pending free agents regardless of the team’s proximity to the playoffs.
One of them is forward Paul Stastny ($3.75 million AAV), which is pretty ironic. The Jets acquired Stastny in 2018 when the St. Louis Blues were in a similar spot to where Winnipeg is now: contending for a playoff spot, but maybe not good enough to earn it or do anything with it if they do. He has value, with 30 points in 48 games and plenty of postseason experience.
The other pending UFA is Andrew Copp ($3.64 million AAV), and he’s the one most likely to move. Copp has 32 points in 53 games and would thrive down the lineup for a contender. He’s also an asset on the penalty kill. The Jets have made noise about hanging onto him for a playoff push, but speculation is that he’s all but gone as a free agent after the season.
Would the Jets go deeper than their expiring contacts to include someone like veteran defenseman Brenden Dillon, whose $3.9 million AAV and contract term (signed through 2024) could be really appealing to a contender? It’s not impossible.